The PGA Tour hits the Beehive State for the first time since 1963, as the Black Desert Resort will host the fittingly named Black Desert Championship in Ivins, Utah.
Keith Mitchell, Seamus Power, and Kurt Kitayama headline the favorites in the Black Desert Championship odds, and our top golf picks have you covered for the Tour’s return to Utah this week.
Best Black Desert Championship picks
- Power to win outright (+2,800 at FanDuel)
- Glover to win outright (+4,000 at FanDuel)
- Novak Top 30 (+105 at bet365)
- Kizzire Top 40 (-125 at DraftKings)
- Fox Top 20 After Round 1 (+230 at bet365)
Black Desert Championship outright picks
Pick to win: Seamus Power
+2,800 at FanDuel
The two-time PGA Tour winner has played the weekend in eight consecutive worldwide events with four Top 20s, including his T11 at the Sanderson Farms, while gaining true strokes across the board.
Most encouraging, he ranked 17th in true strokes gained approach last week because even with that strong finish, he still only ranks 51st in the metric in this field during the eight-event run. The rest of Power’s game is tight, so if the improved approach play carries over, he’ll be in contention this week.
I’m complementing the outright ticket with a Top 30 bet at -125 odds through DraftKings.
Sleeper pick to win: Lucas Glover
+4,000 at FanDuel
Lucas Glover gained true strokes on the greens in consecutive events with a T13 in the Procore Championship and T3 last week in the Sanderson Farms. He’s fifth in driving accuracy, second in true strokes gained approach, and eighth in putting in this field during the two-tournament stretch.
Simply put, when Glover rolls it well, he contends in star-studded fields. As a result, I’m anticipating the elite ball-striker making a run at winning the Black Desert Championship, given his current form. I also like backing him at +110 odds through DraftKings to finish Top 30.
Black Desert Championship prop picks
Finishing position pick: Andrew Novak Top 30
+105 at bet365
Andrew Novak turned in another strong showing at the Sanderson Farms with a T23 that included ranking 14th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 18th on approach. He’s 24th in adjusted scoring average and has played the weekend in seven consecutive events.
The 29-year-old American also impressively ranks 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 10th on approach, and 20th in putting in this field across the seven-tournament run. Novak is a player I’m expecting to continue playing well, and I’m going to continue to back him until the books adjust his odds.
Finishing position pick: Patton Kizzire Top 40
-125 at DraftKings
This is a long price for a three-time Tour winner in excellent form and going against a weak field. Kizzire won the Procore Championship in September and followed it up with a T11 at the Sanderson Farms last week.
He’s putting the lights out and ranks first in this field in true strokes gained putting and second in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field during the stretch. Add Kizzire ranking fourth in birdie-or-better percentage and 20th in bogey avoidance on Tour this season, and there’s a lot to like this week.
While this may look like a conservative recommendation on the surface, I do expect Kizzire’s putter to cool. He’s actually lost true strokes on the greens in six of seven events prior to the Procore. Still, I’m banking on his tee-to-green game paving the way for this Top 40 nod.
Black Desert Championship first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Ryan Fox Top 20
+230 at bet365
The Australian is coming off a solid T11 at the Sanderson Farms, where he finished 12th in true strokes gained approach and 18th in true strokes gained putting.
Ryan Fox is also one of the more accomplished players in the field, with six worldwide wins and two more victories on the Challenge Tour. Additionally, he’s 39th on the PGA Tour in Round-1 scoring and started hot with a 5-under opening round in Jackson last week.
Another primary reason I’ve targeted Fox is the price discrepancy in this market. He’s trading as short as +180 at FanDuel to finish Top 20 in Round 1, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 18% with the +230 bet365 odds.
Black Desert Championship odds
- Keith Mitchell: +1,600
- Seamus Power: +2,500
- Kurt Kitayama: +2,500
- Erik Van Rooyen: +3,000
- Chris Kirk: +3,000
- Chan Kim: +3,000
- Stephen Jaeger: +3,000
- Ben Griffin: +3,000
- Beau Hossler: +3,000
- Patrick Fishburn: +3,000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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