The chase for the FedEx Cup continues in Colorado this week with the BMW Championship taking place at Castle Pines Golf Club, with this week's 50-man field being trimmed to 30 ahead of East Lake next week.
Scottie Scheffler headlines this week’s field as the betting favorite in the BMW Championship odds, and he’s followed by a strong second tier consisting of Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, and Viktor Hovland.
Here are our free golf picks for this week’s action at Castle Pines.
Best BMW Championship picks
- Xander Schauffele to win outright (+600 at bet365)
- Wyndham Clark to win outright (+3,500 at bet365)
- Billy Horschel Top 20 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Tom Hoge over Max Homa (-135 at Caesars)
- Robert MacIntyre Round 1 Under 71.5 (+115 at Caesars)
BMW Championship outright picks
Pick to win: Xander Schauffele
+600 at bet365
Xander Schauffele has followed up his win at The Open with consecutive Top 10s, including finishing T2 in Memphis last week. He’s been dialed across the three-tournament stretch with ranks of second in true strokes gained tee-to-green, third in true strokes gained approach, and fifth in true strokes gained putting in this 50-player field.
It’s nothing new, either. He also enters with respective ranks of second, second, and first through 56 measured rounds over the past six months. I value his complete game and long-standing consistency with the entire field teeing it up competitively for the first time at Castle Pines.
Sleeper pick: Wyndham Clark
+3,500 at bet365
The Colorado native has the most experience at Castle Pines with an estimated 25-30 non-competitive rounds, and he’s also been sneaky competitive entering this week’s BMW Championship with three Top 10s and another T14 across his past five events.
He’s gained true strokes across the board in his past two tournaments, including storming to a T7 finish with a final-round 64 at the St. Jude last week. While it’s a small two-tournament stretch, he still impressively checks out seventh in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 12th in true strokes gained putting in this field.
We're landing a fair number with the 2023 U.S. Open champ when you add the potential edge with his course familiarity and playing in altitude growing up to his game rounding back into top form. DraftKings is also hanging -125 odds for him to finish Top 20, which is a recommended complementary bet considering his noted strong form.
BMW Championship prop picks
Finishing position pick: Billy Horschel Top 20
-110 at DraftKings
Every aspect of Billy Horschel’s game is clicking and he’s carded three consecutive Top 10s while gaining true strokes across the board. He heads to Castle Pines ranking third in true strokes gained tee-to-green, eighth in true strokes gained putting, and fourth in driving accuracy in this field during the three-tournament surge.
Additionally, he took down the 2014 BMW Championship at nearby Cherry Hills Country Club in 2014 during his run to win the FedEx Cup. It should prove as an added confidence boost for the proven form player. He contends when he's in top form and I expect that to be the case again this week.
Finally, there’s also a notable edge in landing the available -110 odds because bet365 has him priced at -143 to finish Top 20. The difference presents a healthy positive expected value of 12% to the -110 DraftKings number.
Matchup pick: Tom Hoge over Max Homa
-135 at Caesars
There are currently no strengths in Max Homa’s game and he’s carded just a single Top 20 across 10 events since finishing T3 at the Masters in April. The miserable stretch includes finishing last in the St. Jude where he lost true strokes across the board, ranked last in both true strokes gained tee-to-green, and 68th out of 70 in true strokes gained approach.
It’s a long-standing slide, too. He's lost true strokes on approach in four of his past five events and on the greens in three of the five. His best finish during the stretch is a T43 at The Open.
While Tom Hoge hasn’t been firing on all cylinders, either, I’m encouraged by his strong final-round showing last week. He went 4-under while ranking fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and he’s also gained true strokes on approach in nine of his past 11 events.
Homa is again last in this 50-man field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across 28 measured rounds over the past three months and Hoge ranks 17th in the metric and fourth in true gained strokes on approach through 30 measured rounds during that same span.
BMW Championship first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Robert MacIntyre Under 71.5
+115 at Caesars
Castle Pines should provide ample birdie opportunities, and while there’s been week-to-week inconsistency in Robert MacIntyre’s results, he’s 16th in adjusted scoring average and a respectable 45th in Round 1 scoring average on the PGA Tour this season.
The Scot has gained true strokes across the board through his past 11 events, which of course includes a pair of wins and two more Top 10s. He also finished 19th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth in true strokes gained putting in Memphis last week to finish T7, so he's heading to the BMW in strong form.
His short game is also sharp. He’s 14th on Tour in scrambling percentage and 24th in true strokes gained around the green during this noted 11-tournament stretch. Add him ranking 27th on Tour in bogey avoidance and I’m anticipating a tidy opening round on Thursday.
BMW Championship odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +300
- Xander Schauffele: 550
- Rory McIlroy: +550
- Collin Morikawa: +1,400
- Patrick Cantlay: +1,600
- Hideki Matsuyama: +1,600
- Viktor Hovland: +1,800
- Ludvig Aberg: +2,000
- Wyndham Clark: +2,500
- Tony Finau: +2,500
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2,500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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