Rory McIlroy and Augusta National go toe-to-toe for a 16th time at the 2024 Masters, and the four-time major champion will look to defy the Masters odds and win his first Green Jacket to complete the career Grand Slam.
Here’s our analysis of Rory’s chances of finally conquering Augusta and joining the illustrious company of Grand Slam winners.
Rory McIlroy Masters 2024 odds
Rory McIlroy current form
It’s so difficult to pin down McIlroy’s current form because he hasn’t missed a cut since the 2023 Masters, is coming off a solo third at the Valero Texas Open, and has won twice with another 11 Top 10s across 22 events.
For 99% of the players on the planet, that would be a career-changing heater, but it’s more par for the course for McIlroy because the solo third last week was also his first Top 20 of the PGA Tour season.
Still, his approaches were straight fire at TPC San Antonio on Sunday, his tee game is unrivaled and plays everywhere. Plus, Rory has proven capable of flipping the switch into a birdie-making machine while equally quickly jettisoning himself out of contention.
Rory McIlroy Masters history
Talk about the good, the bad, and the ugly.
McIlroy has seven Top 10s across his past 10 trips to Augusta National, but he’s also missed the cut twice in the past three years and his final-round 80 in 2011 to blow a four-shot, 54-hole lead still stings.
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Why Rory McIlroy will win the 2024 Masters
If you knock on victory’s door enough at Augusta National, they’ll let you into The Butler Cabin eventually, right?
But seriously, when Rory’s at his best, he is the best. And perhaps even more impressive, he consistently contends and wins when he isn’t firing on all cylinders. McIlroy will win the 2024 Masters if he strings together four solid days with pinpoint approaches because his tee game can turn any track into a pitch and putt.
Why Rory McIlroy won't win the 2024 Masters
McIlroy hasn’t carded a sub-70 opening round since 2018 and he’s been over par in Round 1 each of the past five years. And, unfortunately, those poor starts have filed any weekend charges in the too little, too late file.
Additionally, while It’s impossible to quantify how the pressure of completing the career Grand Slam has and will impact McIlroy, also staring at a 10-year major championship drought can’t make things any easier.
McIlroy won’t win the 2024 Masters because he’ll fall too far behind the eight ball on Thursday, have a blowup hole on the weekend, or fail to show up with his best game.
Rory McIlroy best bet for the 2024 Masters
McIlroy gained +3.72 true strokes on approach in the final round of the Valero Texas Open and I’m anticipating the ball-striking wizardry to carry over to Round 1 of the Masters. Additionally, I think we’re landing a fair total because the weather forecast isn’t promising.
While there may be fleeting unfavorable scoring conditions, I do think this is an early-week overreaction. Round 1 play could be suspended and the rain will only soften conditions and slow Augusta National down.
The wind will be the biggest challenge and McIlroy’s fourth in total strokes gained and sixth in strokes gained ball-striking when combining moderate and extreme wind conditions across the past 50 rounds, per Fantasy National.
Best bet: Round 1 score Under 71.5 (-110 at Caesars)
