Masters Odds, Picks, and Predictions Ahead of Round 4: Home Sweet Homa

With Max Homa only two shots back of Scottie Scheffler for the lead, the Scottsdale native offers significant value to remain consistent on the greens. Neil Parker has you covered for Sunday with his Round 4 betting picks at Augusta National.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Apr 13, 2024 • 20:49 ET • 4 min read
Max Homa Masters 2024
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The final round of the first major championship has arrived, and our best Round 4 Masters picks will set you up for all the action at Augusta National on Sunday.

While moving day didn’t disappoint in Round 3, betting favorite in the golf odds and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler stands alone atop the leaderboard sporting the shortest price in the Masters odds.

Will there be a late charge, or will Scheffler hold on for his second Masters title? Here are our free Masters picks for Sunday's final round.

Best Masters Round 4 picks

Max Homa to shoot 72.5 or lower (-130 at Caesars)

Homa carded 17 pars and a bogey in Round 3, and he’s gained true strokes across the board through the first three rounds. He’ll avoid the added pressure of being in the final group Sunday, and Homa’s ball-striking has been nearly perfect. Homa ranks fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and first in true strokes gained on approaches.

The bridies are coming in Round 4, too. Homa is garnering attention for going 32 consecutive holes without a circle on the card, but there have only been a pair of squares, and he’s consistently giving himself scoring chances by hitting 27 of 36 greens in regulation over the past two rounds.

I also value this bet because Homa to shoot 71.5 or lower is trading at -139 through BetMGM, so we’re landing a better number and an extra stroke back by placing this bet through Caesars.

Pick: Max Homa to shoot 72.5 or lower (-130 at Caesars)

Max Homa over Ludvig Aberg (+122 at Caesars)

After laying out the case for Homa playing well Sunday, there’s also a case for Aberg taking a step back.

The major championship rookie ranks second in true strokes gained putting through three rounds, and he entered the 2024 Masters ranked 33rd in the field across his past eight events, including losing strokes in each of his past two events.

Additionally, while Aberg exudes the cool-and-collected look, this is Round 4 at the Masters, and the margin for error is razor thin.

Pick: Max Homa over Ludvig Aberg (+122 at Caesars)

Patrick Cantlay Round 4 score Under 71.5 (+115 at Caesars) & lowest Round 4 score (+3,000 at DraftKings)

Cantlay fired a 64 in Round 3 of the 2019 Masters and a 66 in Round 2 of the 2020 event, so he has posted a number in the past. He’ll need to go low Sunday to have any chance of winning, and he’s putted better in consecutive rounds after losing -1.99 true strokes in Round 1 and finishing 80th of 89 players in true strokes gained putting.

Let’s not forget Cantlay ranked fourth in birdie-or-better percentage (25.54%) last year, and he’s 23rd with a 25.72% mark this year with seven of his 27 rounds at 66 or better ahead of the Masters.

The lowest Round 4 score bet is a nice lotto ticket to complement his total.

Pick: Patrick Cantlay Round 4 score Under 71.5 (+115 at Caesars)
Pick: Patrick Cantlay lowest Round 4 score (+3,000 at DraftKings)

Latest Masters odds

  • Scottie Scheffler (-120)
  • Collin Morikawa (+350)
  • Max Homa (+700)
  • Ludvig Aberg (+900)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+2,000)
  • Xander Schauffele (+3,000)
  • Cameron Smith (+8,000)
  • Nicolai Hojgaard (+11,000)
  • Cam Davis (+11,000)
  • Cameron Young (+13,000)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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