Round 3 of the 2023 Masters was suspended until Sunday morning, with the weather continuing to ruin everyone’s weekend.
Nobody has finished 48 holes yet, with the guys at the top of the leaderboard having not even made the turn.
However, we are still going to look ahead at the current Masters odds and give you my best Masters picks for the final day(s?) of this year's event.
Best 2023 Masters Rounds 4 picks
Picks made on 4/8/2023 at 6:04 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best 2023 Masters Round 3 picks
Brooks Koepka outright winner (-105)
Undoubtedly, this is the chalkiest/squarest pick one could make at this stage of the tournament.
However, -105 odds implies that Koepka only has a 51.2% probability of closing out his quest for a Green Jacket, which I think is way too low.
Entering the fourth day at Augusta, Koepka holds a commanding four-stroke lead over second-place Jon Rahm — and a seven-stroke lead over the rest of the field — and Brooks only has 30 holes left to play, while everyone trailing him (outside of Rahm and amateur Sam Bennett) have even less.
If everyone is honest with themselves, Rahm is the only guy who can catch Koepka, and that is unlikely: Prior to Saturday's suspension in play, Rahm’s game was starting to fall apart in the inclement weather, bogeying holes four and five while sitting +1 in Round 3.
Meanwhile, Koepka is just playing calm and conservative golf, which he gets the massive benefit of doing with such a commanding lead. Through the first six holes of Round 3, he is 1-under and still only has one bogey this week.
Not only is Koepka oozing confidence on the course and looking better than everyone based on the eye test, but his underlying metrics also suggest that he will close this tournament out. Among the remaining field, he ranks second in Strokes Gained: Putting, first in SG: Approach, second in SG: tee-to-green, and first in scrambling.
And Rahm trails Koepka in every single one of those categories. This tournament is now a two-man race, and while everyone is likely hoping Rahm catches Koepka, it is unlikely.
Fresh off his win at LIV Orlando, look for Koepka to stir up the golf world and secure his first Green Jacket and fifth major championship.
Pick: Brooks Koepka outright (-105 at BetMGM)
Jason Day outright winner (+9,500) - 0.1 units
While I do not think it will happen, I believe that there is a greater than 1% chance that Jason Day mounts a big comeback, which is what his odds at 95/1 imply. This should just be a very small wager (0.1 units for me personally) as this tournament realistically is down to Rahm and Koepka, but these odds are too long to not take a flyer on.
Day is only one hole ahead of the two favorites, so he has more time to catch up than the rest of the field. Thus far, Day ranks fifth among the remaining field in strokes gained around the green, which is a key predictor for success at Augusta. The third round has not been particularly kind to Day thus far, sitting at 1-over through seven holes, however, he will get a chance to reset on Sunday with much better weather.
One of the better stories of this golf season thus far has been the resurgence of Day, who currently sits in 19th place in the FedExCup standings and enters this week in great form, finishing inside the Top 20 in each of his last six stroke-play events.
Four of those finishes were also within the Top 10, including his fifth-place result at the WM Phoenix Open, with terrific iron play — an essential at Augusta — a core reason why he's done well lately... and is currently T8 this week.
On TOUR this season, he ranks 10th in SG: tee-to-green and Augusta is a venue where Day consistently plays well, as he is en route to his seventh Top-20 finish over 12 career appearances.
Can he cover nine strokes over the next 29 holes? Probably not, but at 95/1, it is worth a very small dart throw.
Pick: Jason Day outright (+9,500 at Circa) - 0.1 units
