The 2024 Olympic Men’s Golf tournament begins Thursday with 60 of the world’s best teeing it up at Le Golf National outside of Paris. It’s a top-heavy field with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler the betting favorite in the Olympic Men’s Golf odds and he’s followed by Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm at the top of the board.
Here are our free golf picks for this week’s Olympic Men’s Golf event.
Best Olympic Men's Golf picks
- Jon Rahm to win outright (+1,000)
- Corey Conners to win outright (+4,000)
- Joaquin Niemann Top 10 (+162)
- Alex Noren Top 20 (-150)
- Ludvig Aberg Under 4.5 birdies in R1 (-120)
Olympic Men's Golf outright picks
Pick to win: Jon Rahm (+1,000)
The former World No. 1 finally took down his first LIV Golf event last week at JCB Golf & Country Club with a 13-under score and carding just four bogeys across 54 holes. He’s had success at Le Golf National with consecutive Top-10 finishes in the Open de France in 2017 and 2018, and he also played in the 2018 Ryder Cup here.
His game appears in top form, too. After gaining true strokes across the board to finish T7 at The Open, Rahm was third in greens-in-regulation percentage and scrambling last week. The Spaniard also now paces LIV Golf in total strokes gained for the season.
Finally, while it’s difficult to quantify, I prefer him in a 72-hole event because there's more time for the cream to rise to the top — and Rahm’s game is the creme de la creme.
Sleeper pick to win: Corey Conners (+4,000)
It’s been a solid run for the Canadian. Corey Conners has played the weekend in all 20 events this season with 11 Top-25 finishes. More importantly, he’s been even better across his past eight tournaments with a T27 at the Travelers his worst result.
Conners has gained true strokes across the board during the stretch, and his ball-striking prowess has been especially solid. He ranks fourth in this field in true strokes gained approach and sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green. Still, I’m even more encouraged that he’s gained true strokes on the greens in consecutive events to finish T10 at the Genesis and T25 at The Open.
The elite tee-to-green game gives him plenty of quality looks, so if he continues to roll it well at Le Golf National, he’ll be in the mix in yet another event.
Olympic Men's Golf prop picks
Finishing position pick: Joaquin Niemann Top 10 (+162)
While the Chilean wasn’t able to put it all together in any of his three major championship appearances this season, he played the weekend in each and played a busy schedule just to earn invites into the Masters and PGA Championship.
His win at the Australian Open in December qualified him for The Open and he’s won twice on the LIV Golf circuit while carding another seven Top 10s in 11 events since. For giggles, the 25-year-old phenom also finished solo third in the International Series Oman on the Asian Tour in February.
Joaquin Niemann’s game checks out statistically, too. He’s gained strokes in all seven metrics during the LIV Golf season to rank second in total strokes gained while also carding the most birdies and eagles. Additionally, he ranks second in driving distance, fourth in GIR%, and sixth in putting average to reinforce his complete game.
Finishing position pick: Alex Noren Top 20 (-150)
A lot is going right in Alex Noren’s game, and after a mini funk with consecutive missed cuts at the U.S. Open and Rocket Mortgage, he’s been right back in the sweet spot with a T10 at the Scottish Open and T13 at The Open. The Swede has played the weekend in 15 of 18 events with nine Top 20s and he’s gained true strokes across the board for the year.
Noren also has an accomplished track record at Le Golf National, with his win in 2018 complemented by another two Top 10s and two more Top 20s in his eight appearances in the Open de France. He also played in the 2018 Ryder Cup and won three points, including beating Bryson DeChambeau in the Sunday singles.
Finally, while there's a steep vig on this prop, there are shops with an even higher tax. Caesars has Noren priced as short as -180 to finish Top 20, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 7% with these -150 at DraftKings.
Olympic Men's Golf first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Ludvig Aberg Under 4.5 birdies (or better) (-120)
This will be Aberg’s first competitive trip to Le Golf National, and while the Swede’s game plays anywhere, putting five circles on the card is asking a lot. The track only has three Par 5s, and Aberg ranks 43rd in this field in true strokes gained putting across his past 10 rounds. Birdies are difficult to come by if you’re not rolling it well.
Additionally, he’s also 33rd in driving accuracy, and there’s a premium on hitting fairways at Le Golf National. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the track was set up to play difficult in the opening round, which, in turn, puts another premium on making pars and avoiding squares.
This 4.5 total also looks overly optimistic. While Aberg impressively ranks 20th in par-breakers percentage (23.92%) and 27th with 4.14 birdies per round on the PGA Tour this season, both of those marks play to the Under.
Olympic Men's Golf odds
- Scottie Scheffler +350
- Xander Schauffele +550
- Rory McIlroy +750
- Collin Morikawa +900
- Jon Rahm +900
- Ludvig Aberg +1,400
