The fourth PGA Tour signature event of the 2025 season is here, as the best of the best will gather this week at Bay Hill Club and Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Former winners Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the betting favorites in the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, and with the Northern Irishman heading to Bay Hill in top form, our top golf picks are headlined by McIlroy himself.
Golf picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025
- McIlroy to win outright (+900 at bet365)
- Thomas to win outright (+2800 at FanDuel)
- Henley Top 20 (+140 at DraftKings)
- Conners Top 30 (+100 at DraftKings)
- Thomas Over 3.5 Round 1 birdies (-115 at Caesars)
Arnold Palmer Invitational outright picks
Outright pick: Rory McIlroy
+900 at bet365
This will be the 11th straight trip to Bay Hill for the API for Rory McIlroy, and the 2018 winner has another three Top-5 finishes in the event.
McIlroy also heads to the track in incredible form with 10 consecutive Top 25s, including a pair of victories and four more Top 5s. Of course, two of those wins have come in his past four worldwide events.
He's third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth in true strokes gained putting during the highlighted 10-event heater to reinforce further that he’s clicking in all facets of the game.
Outright pick: Justin Thomas
+2800 at FanDuel
The biggest shortcoming in Justin Thomas’ game for months was poor putting, so him gaining true strokes on the greens in consecutive events while finishing T9 at The Genesis and T6 at the Phoenix Open is encouraging.
He’s also gained true strokes on approach in 11 consecutive events, and ranking fourth in true strokes gained around-the-green has paved the way to ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the stretch.
JT is also coming off a solid T12 in last year’s event and a T21 in 2023, so his course history also checks out ahead of his fourth trip to Bay Hill.
Arnold Palmer Invitational prop picks
Finishing position pick: Russell Henley Top 20
+140 at DraftKings
Meet Mr. Consistency.
Russell Henley has played the weekend in 18 consecutive events dating back to last April, and he’s gained true strokes across the board while ranking 10th in true strokes gained on approach, 12th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and 15th in true strokes gained putting.
An important part of being successful at Bay Hill is positioning and navigating the track, so while distance isn’t Henley’s best attribute, he’s also third in driving accuracy in this field during the 18-event stretch. Of course, Henley finished T4 here last year, too.
Finishing position pick: Corey Conners Top 30
+100 at DraftKings
While Corey Conners isn’t off to the flashiest start to the 2025 season, he’s been solid at Bay Hill and will be playing this event for the seventh time. His worst finish across his past four trips is a T21 in 2023, and the Canadian also finished solo third in the 2021 edition.
Even better, he’s gained true strokes on approach in each appearance, including finishing second in the metric last year and pacing the field in 2021.
We’re landing a long number because of the ho-hum current form, but returning to a track that fits his eye could pave the way to another solid showing in the API.
Arnold Palmer Invitational first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Justin Thomas Over 3.5 birdies
-115 at Caesars
Returning to Thomas, he’s eighth in birdie average and sixth in birdie-or-better percentage this season, so I expect him to put at least four circles on the card Thursday.
The weather is expected to be clear and calm, and Thomas has 34 birdies or better — 4.25 per round — across his past eight loops at the track, including in all four rounds last year.
Finally, it’s further encouraging that Thomas is sixth in Round-1 scoring average and fourth in overall scoring average for the year.
Arnold Palmer Invitational odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +320
- Rory McIlroy: +750
- Ludvig Aberg: +1600
- Xander Schauffele: +1800
- Collin Morikawa: +2000
- Justin Thomas: +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2500
- Patrick Cantlay: +2800
- Tommy Fleetwood: +3000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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