The PGA Tour West Coast swing continues with the Farmers Insurance Open at storied Torrey Pines, and it’s a strong field headlining the golf odds at the demanding track.
Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama are atop the Farmers Insurance Open odds list, with Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, and two-time champion Jason Day rounding out the second tier of betting favorites.
Here are my top golf picks for this week’s tournament at Torrey Pines.
Golf picks for the Farmers Insurance Open 2025
- Finau to win outright (+2200 at BetMGM)
- Bradley to win outright (+2200 at DraftKings)
- Aberg Top 10 (+130 at DraftKings)
- Zalatoris Top 30 (-130 at bet365)
- Matsuyama Under 3.5 R1 birdies (+110 at bet365)
Farmers Insurance Open outright picks
Pick to win: Tony Finau
+2200 at BetMGM
I’m not sweating an early Tony exit from The American Express last week. Finau is making his 11th trip to Torrey Pines, and he’s played the weekend in nine of the first 10 with nine T25 finishes — including six of the T10 variety.
The six-time PGA Tour winner had an abysmal 2024 campaign on the greens and the poor putting carried over in The American Express. Still, he finished seventh in true strokes gained putting as recently as his T15 in The Sentry, and his ball striking remains elite.
Finau is third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth in true strokes gained on approaches across his past 162 measured rounds, after all. Of course, he finished second in true strokes gained tee-to-green during last year’s T6 finish at Torrey Pines, too.
Sleeper: Keegan Bradley
+2200 at DraftKings
Bradley has played the weekend in each of his past seven trips to the Farmers, and he has three T5s during the run, including a solo second in the 2023 edition.
The American has gained true strokes on approaches in five consecutive events, dating back to his win at the BMW Championship in August. He ranks fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
I also value that he’s gained true strokes on the greens in three straight tournaments and posted a T15-T6 start to this season in Hawaii before taking last week off.
Farmers Insurance Open prop picks
Finishing prediction pick: Ludvig Aberg Top 10
+2200 at DraftKings
Aberg proved he’s recovered from his fall meniscus surgery with his solo sixth in the Hero and T5 in The Sentry, and the demanding length of Torrey Pines gives him an advantage over the majority of the field. He finished T9 in his debut here last year, and I’m expecting Aberg to follow it up with another excellent showing.
The Swede gained true strokes across the board in The Sentry, and he ranks third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across 76 rounds over the past 12 months, after all.
Finishing prediction pick: Will Zalatoris Top 30
-130 at bet365
Cruising along a sneaky solid run, Zalatoris has made six consecutive cuts with four Top 20s dating back to the St. Jude in August. He’s also started the 2025 season with a T26-T12, and his track record at Torrey Pines jumps off the page.
Zalatoris finished T13 here last year despite being out of form, and he also carded a solo second in 2022 and T7 in 2021. He also paced the field in both true strokes gained on approaches and true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2022 and gained true strokes across the board last year, so he can golf his ball around Torrey.
Farmers Insurance Open first-round pick
First Round pick: Hideki Matsuyama Under 3.5 Round 1 birdies
+110 at bet365
Matsuyama heads to Torrey Pines in elite form with his win in The Sentry and T16 at the Sony to start the season.
I’m just expecting The South Course to play difficult per usual Wednesday, and the Japanese star to see another small dip in his ball-striking and putting at the tough track.
He’s also made three or fewer bridies in three of his past four trips around The South Course, and let's not forget the Par 72 stretches out a demanding 7,765 yards, with seven Par 4s over 450 yards. Additionally, three of the Par 3s are over 200 yards and two Par 5s are over 600 yards.
Simply put, par is a good score, and Matsuyama dropped from +1.51 true strokes gained putting and +2.57 true strokes gained on approaches per round to win The Sentry to respective +0.82 and +0.34 marks in the Sony.
Farmers Insurance Open odds
- Ludvig Aberg (+900)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1100)
- Sungjae Im (+1800)
- Will Zalatoris (+2200)
- Tony Finau (+2200)
- Jason Day (+2500)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Not intended for use in MA.
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