The PGA Tour returns to Torrey Pines for The Genesis Invitational and the third signature event of the 2025 season. It’s a stacked field, with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy atop the golf odds lists this week.
The Genesis Invitational odds offer plenty of value, and my top golf picks have you covered for this week’s star-studded showdown in San Diego.
Golf picks for the Genesis Invitational 2025
- Collin Morikawa to win outright (+1400 at bet365)
- Ludvig Aberg to win outright (+2500 at DraftKings)
- Keegan Bradley Top 30 (-125 at DraftKings)
- Min Woo Lee Top 30 (-120 at DraftKings)
- Sepp Straka Under 72.5 Round 1 score (+115 at Caesars)
Genesis Invitational outright picks
Pick to win: Collin Morikawa
+1400 at bet365
There’s just too much going right with Collin Morikawa’s game for a fifth PGA Tour win to be too far away. After all, he’s second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past 18 events dating back to last year’s Masters, and Morikawa has racked up seven Top 5s during the heater.
He’s also played well at Torrey Pines with a T4 in the 2021 U.S. Open and solo third in the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open. The California native is plenty familiar with Poa greens, too.
Sleeper: Ludvig Aberg
+2500 at DraftKings
Rewind three weeks to The Farmers Insurance at Torrey Pines, and Aberg was the co-betting favorite at +1000 odds. That was a shallower field, but this course fits the Swede’s game, and I consider this +2500 number one of the sweetest deals on the board.
Aberg should be well past the illness that hurt his 2025 Farmers showing and led to his withdrawal at Pebble Beach. His ball striking had been elite prior to those two events.
Dating back to the 2024 Farmers through this year’s Sentry, Aberg ranked sixth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, including third in the off-the-tee and eighth on approach metrics while ranking seventh in driving distance.
Add ranking 17th in true strokes gained putting during the 21-event stretch, and there aren’t any weaknesses in his game.
Genesis Invitational prop picks
Top 30 pick: Keegan Bradley
-125 at DraftKings
The Ryder Cup captain has oodles of experience at Torrey Pines, and he turned in a solid T15 finish in the Farmers Insurance Open while finishing ninth in the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
Add Bradley’s solo second in the 2023 edition to consecutive Top 5 finishes in 2017 and 2018, and he’s positioned to rebound from a discouraging T65 at Pebble in his previous start. Prior, the six-time PGA Tour winner was rolling along an impressive six-tournament stretch.
Bradley won the BMW Championship in August and added two more Top 5s and two more Top 20s, with his T21 in the Tour Championship being his worst showing. Of course, he also ranked sixth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the run.
Top 30 pick: Min Woo Lee
-120 at DraftKings
The three-time DP World Tour winner has played the weekend in 12 consecutive worldwide events, including collecting a T12 last week in the WM Phoenix Open.
Lee ranks third in driving distance, eighth in true strokes gained off-the-tee, and 16th in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field during the stretch. I also value that he’s averaged 0.43 true strokes gained putting and 0.4 on approaches per round across his latest three events while gaining true strokes across the board. His first PGA Tour victory is on the horizon.
I also fancy a sprinkle on Min Woo to cook his way to an outright win at +6500 odds at FanDuel.
Genesis Invitational first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Sepp Straka Under 72.5
+115 at Caesars
Sepp Straka is riding a heater with a win, four more Top 15s, and a T30 across his past six events, and his ball-striking metrics jump off the page. He’s eighth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, third on approach, and first in driving accuracy during the run, and this will be his sixth competitive trip to Torrey Pines.
His track record here isn’t flawless, but he’s gained true strokes across the board across his past three events and has a T16 and T13 in the Farmers on his resume. Add pacing the PGA Tour in scoring average before the cut and Rounds in the 60s this season to ranking third in adjusted scoring average, and I expect Straka to shoot par or better in Thursday’s opening round.
Genesis Invitational odds
- Scottie Scheffler (+350)
- Rory McIlroy (+700)
- Collin Morikawa (+1400)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
- Justin Thomas (+2200)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2500)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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