The PGA Tour leaves California for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta, and Akshay Bhatia, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Kurt Kitayama are atop the golf odds lists this week.
While it’s definitely a weaker field at first glance, Bhatia and Hojgaard are emerging stars, and my top golf picks have you covered for this week’s action in Mexico running from Thursday, February 20 through Sunday, February 23.
Golf picks for the Mexico Open 2025
- Akshay Bhatia to win outright (+1400 at DraftKings)
- Patrick Rodgers to win outright (+2400 at bet365)
- Rasmus Hojgaard Top 20 (+110 at bet365)
- Andrew Putnam Top 40 (+110 at bet365)
- Michael Kim Over 10.5 first round pars (-138 at bet365)
Mexico Open outright picks
Pick to win: Akshay Bhatia
+1400 at DraftKings
This isn’t a strong field, and Akshay Bhatia stands alone as the top talent. Additionally, both his PGA Tour wins have been weaker-field events to reinforce his ability to cash in when the opportunity presents itself.
Of course, he also heads south following a T9 finish in The Genesis after ranking seventh in true strokes gained on approaches and 13th in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
I also value Bhatia finishing fourth in the 2023 Mexico Open while ranking fifth in true strokes gained on approach, seventh in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and sixth in putting.
Sleeper: Patrick Rodgers
+2400 at bet365
With three consecutive Top 10s in the Mexico Open and coming off a solid T3 that included holding the 54-hole lead at The Genesis, I expect Patrick Rodgers to have the hot hand again at Vidanta Vallarta this week.
He finished sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this event last year, including ranking second in true strokes gained off-the-tee, and he also finished third in the metric last week at Torrey Pines.
Finally, in addition to finishing fourth in the true strokes gained putting in The Genesis, Rodgers has gained true strokes on the greens in each of his three trips to this event.
Mexico Open prop picks
Finishing position pick: Rasmus Hojgaard Top 20
+110 at bet365
Before missing the cut last weekend at The Genesis, Rasmus Hojgaard was on a prolonged heater that included five Top 20s across seven worldwide events. He paced this field in total strokes gained, while also ranking second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth on approaches during the run, too.
The 23-year-old Dane has five DP World Tour wins on his resume, with his last coming in the Amgen Irish Open in September. As noted, this is a watered-down field, and Hojgaard has climbed to No. 43 in the Official World Golf Rankings and an even better 36th in the Data Golf rankings while trailing only Akshay Bhatia.
Look for Hojgaard to rebound nicely from last week’s minor hiccup.
Finishing position pick: Andrew Putnam Top 40
+110 at bet365
Make no mistake, while Andrew Putnam probably doesn't have the distance to realistically contend at Vidanta Vallarta, his game is trending in the right direction to play well all four rounds.
When in form, Putnam is accurate off the tee, an approach ace, and an excellent putter. He’s also heading to Mexico with a T32-T25 stretch at the Farmers and WM Phoenix Open that featured much tougher fields. He gained an average of +1.34 true strokes on approaches, +0.41 on putts, and was 10.5% more accurate off the tee than the field average per round across the two-tournament stretch.
Putnam also finished T24 in 2023 in his last trip to the Mexico Open while ranking sixth in true strokes gained on approaches and 18th in true strokes gained putting.
Mexico Open first-round pick
First round pick: Michael Kim Over 10.5 pars
-138 at bet365
The 31-year-old American heads south in incredible form after following up his T2 at the WM Phoenix Open with a T13 in The Genesis last week. Kim gained true strokes across the board in both events to rank second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, fourth on approaches, and 29th in putting.
It’s a small sample, but I’m expecting Kim to continue the strong play this week and continue putting all kinds of pars on the card.
After all, avoiding bogeys has been the biggest contributor to his success in the past two weeks. Kim only carded a single bogey during the WM Phoenix Open and then finished with six, including just a single bogey in each of his final two rounds at The Genesis.
I anticipate the solid tee-to-green game will pave the way to a number of tap-in pars in Thursday’s opening round at Vidanta.
Mexico Open odds
- Akshay Bhatia (+1400)
- Rasmus Hojgaard (+1800)
- Kurt Kitayama (+2000)
- Samuel Stevens (+2200)
- Patrick Rodgers (+2200)
- Taylor Moore (+2500)
- Stephan Jaeger (+2500)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Not intended for use in MA.
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