World No. 1 and back-to-back winner Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in THE PLAYERS Championship odds, with the best of the best on the PGA Tour headed to TPC Sawgrass this week to continue the Florida Swing.
Here are my top PLAYERS Championship picks for the annual favorite stop on Tour.
Golf picks for the THE PLAYERS Championship 2025
- Morikawa to win outright (+1500 at bet365)
- Thomas to win outright (+2200 at bet365)
- Matsuyama Top 20 (+140 at DraftKings)
- Rai Top 40 (-110 at bet365)
- Straka Under 70.5 Round 1 score (-110 at FanDuel)
THE PLAYERS Championship outright picks
Outright pick: Collin Morikawa
+1500 at bet365
With a solo-second at the Arnold Palmer last week, Collin Morikawa has now carded nine Top-5 finishes since his last win at the ZOZO Championship in October 2023.
He’s gained true strokes across the board during the winless drought, including pacing this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ranking second on approach this season.
Morikawa was also first in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week at Bay Hill, and I’m expecting it to all come together for PGA Tour win No. 5 this week at Sawgrass.
Outright pick: Justin Thomas
+2200 at bet365
The 2021 PLAYERS Champion has gained true strokes on approach in nine consecutive trips to TPC Sawgrass, and he also has been on the plus side of the metric in each of his past 12 events to rank second in this field during the stretch.
Justin Thomas had a tough weekend at Bay Hill, but he’s still fourth in scoring average and eighth in birdie average this season, and he’s carded five Top 10s across his past eight events — including a pair of runner-ups and a T3.
He’s a proven winner on Pete Dye courses, and heads to this year’s PLAYERS in winning form.
THE PLAYERS Championship prop picks
Finishing position pick: Hideki Matsuyama Top 20
+140 at DraftKings
Hideki Matsuyama has taken down three loaded-field events in the past 13 months and heads to TPC Sawgrass with three consecutive Top-25 finishes. Add him finishing solo-fifth and T6 here the past two years to him gaining true strokes off-the-tee in all 10 trips to the event and true strokes on approach in nine of 10, and I'm bullish about him turning in another solid showing at THE PLAYERS.
I also value him ranking second in scrambling percentage and 14th in bogey avoidance alongside his rock-solid 10th-ranked adjusted scoring average.
Finishing position pick: Aaron Rai Top 40
-110 at bet365
Aaron Rai has made the cut in both trips to Sawgrass with respectable T19 and T35 finishes, and the Englishman is also coming off a T4 in Mexico and T11 at the Arnold Palmer last week.
He's in top form ahead of this year’s event and has collected a win and six more Top 10s since last year’s PLAYERS. Rai ranks second in this field in driving accuracy and 16th in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the heater, and his ball-striking acumen will enable him to navigate his way around this track again this week.
THE PLAYERS Championship first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Sepp Straka Under 70.5
-110 at FanDuel
Sepp Straka heads to THE PLAYERS in arguably the best form of his career, and he’s posted a solid T9-T65-T16 run at Sawgrass to reinforce his ability to position his way around the track.
In particular, I value his solid ball-striking metrics this season. Straka is 10th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh on approach, and seventh in driving accuracy in this field.
Additionally, he finished third in true strokes gained putting and sixth on approach at Bay Hill last week, and Straka carded 70 or lower in all four rounds of this event last year.
THE PLAYERS Championship odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +400
- Rory McIlroy: +1000
- Collin Morikawa: +1400
- Ludvig Aberg: +1600
- Justin Thomas: +2200
- Xander Schauffele: +2200
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2200
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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