The Florida Swing concludes at the celebrated Copperhead Course this week, and Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Thomas are the betting favorites in the Valspar Championship odds.
Here are my top Valspar Championship golf picks and prop bets for this week's PGA Tour stop in Palm Harbour.
Golf picks for the Valspar Championship 2025
- Fleetwood to win outright (+1500 at bet365)
- Conners to win outright (+2500 at DraftKings)
- Griffin Top 40 (+105 at DraftKings)
- Hovland Top 40 (+115 at DraftKings)
- Burns over Schauffele in Round 1 (+110 at DraftKings)
Valspar Championship outright picks
Outright pick: Tommy Fleetwood
+1500 at bet365
With 14 consecutive Top-25 worldwide finishes dating back to the Olympics, it’s easy to see why Tommy Fleetwood is sitting with the betting favorites leading in. He carded a T16 in his 2022 debut at Copperhead and followed it up with a T3 in 2023 while also gaining true strokes across the board in both trips.
Add Fleetwood ranking second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach in this field during the noted 14-event stretch, and no one should be surprised if the seven-time DP World Tour winner claims Tour win No. 1 in Palm Harbour this week.
Outright pick: Corey Conners
+2500 at DraftKings
The Canadian has gained true strokes across the board over his past three events to card three Top 25s, including a solo third at the Arnold Palmer and T6 at THE PLAYERS.
While the elite ball-striking is nothing new for Corey Conners, his work on and around the greens impresses, and he heads to Copperhead with ranks of 11th in true strokes gained putting and eighth in true strokes gained around the green during the heater.
Ranking ninth in driving accuracy and sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the run further reinforces his elite underlying metrics, which are the backbone of his success.
Valspar Championship prop picks
Finishing position pick: Ben Griffin Top 40
+105 at DraftKings
Ben Griffin flashed his upside with consecutive T4 finishes in the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic. He gained true strokes across the board, including +1.55 true strokes tee-to-green, +1.11 on approach, and +1.02 putting on the field per round.
His play has dipped the past two weeks with identical -0.74 marks in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach per round the past two events, so I view his missed cut at THE PLAYERS as an opportunity to hit the restart button for this week’s event.
Griffin has made the cut in his two competitive trips to Copperhead, including finishing T17 last season. I also value him finishing 12th in true strokes gained putting in each, and expect that clicking alongside better ball-striking this week.
Finishing position pick: Viktor Hovland Top 40
+115 at DraftKings
The six-time PGA Tour winner and world-class call striker ranks third in this field in true strokes gained on approach the past two weeks, so there are signs Viktor Hovland is trending in the right direction.
This will also be his third trip to Copperhead, and Hovland carded a T3 in his debut in 2021. The elephant in the room is the Norwegian’s short game. Hovland ranking 131st in true strokes gained putting and 134th in true strokes gained around the green in this field across six events this season is an eyesore.
Still, if he tidies it up, his tee-to-green game can do the heavy lifting for a Top-40 finish.
Valspar Championship first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Sam Burns over Xander Schauffele
+110 at DraftKings
There’s been nothing to be excited about with either Sam Burns or Xander Schauffele to start the 2025 season, so the two-time winner at Copperhead being an underdog and paying plus money in a Round 1 matchup is enticing off the hop.
Burns has gained true strokes putting in all six trips to this event, and he’s a proven specialist on Bermuda greens. Schauffele, on the other hand, lost true strokes gained off-the-tee and on the greens last week at THE PLAYERS.
I like Burns to flip the switch at a comfort course and post a number while Schauffele continues to search for his game following his rib injury.
Valspar Championship odds
- Tommy Fleetwood: +1100
- Xander Schauffele: +1200
- Sepp Straka: +1600
- Justin Thomas: +2000
- Tom Kim: +2200
- Sam Burns: +2200
- Michael Kim: +3000
- Corey Conners: +3500
- Adam Scott: +3500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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