World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is a two-time champ at TPC Scottsdale, and he’s also the betting favorite in the WM Phoenix Open odds ahead of this week’s much-anticipated event.
Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, and Sam Burns headline the next tier of contenders in Scottsdale, and my top golf picks for the WM Phoenix Open have you covered for this week’s showdown at TPC Scottsdale.
Golf picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open 2025
- Scheffler to win outright (+300 at FanDuel)
- Burns to win outright (+2500 at DratKings)
- Straka Top 30 (-105 at bet365)
- Novak Top 40 (+105 at bet365)
- Horschel Round 1 Under 69.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Waste Management Phoenix Open outright picks
Pick to win: Scottie Scheffler (+300 at FanDuel)
It’s definitely a little boring to go to the top of the board, but Scottie Scheffler carded a T9 in his 2025 debut last week and is a two-time champion at TPC Scottsdale.
He’s also paced the WM Phoenix Open field in each of the past two years in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach, and Scheffler paced this year’s field in the two metrics across his past 20 events, too.
Add him finishing first on approach last week at Pebble, and I’m anticipating Scheffler’s unrivaled ball-striking leading the way to his third win in Scottsdale.
Sleeper: Sam Burns (+2500 at DraftKings)
Sam Burns has been solid at TPC Scottsdale the past two years with a T6-T3 run, and he also paced the field in true strokes gained putting during his T22 finish in this event in 2021.
The five-time PGA Tour winner is also eyeing statistical correction to his ball striking with his -0.21 strokes lost on approach per round over his past four events lagging well behind the +0.82 he gained per across his prior five events.
Of course, putting remains his strength with him ranking seventh in this field in true strokes gained putting over the past calendar year, and I also value him finishing third in true strokes gained tee-to-green here a year ago.
Waste Management Phoenix Open prop picks
Finishing position pick: Sepp Straka Top 30 (-105 at bet365)
The only knock on Sepp Straka this week is his lack of success in this event, with his solo 66th finish in 2022 going along with consecutive missed cuts the prior to years. Otherwise, his game is dialed in.
He has five consecutive Top 30s while ranking second in driving accuracy, third in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and fifth in true strokes gained on approach in this field during the stretch.
He also won The American Express and held a 54-hole lead last week at Pebble.
Finishing position pick: Andrew Novak Top 40 (+105 at bet365)
Andrew Novak finished T8 here after entering the final round just a shot back last season, and he’s coming off a pair of excellent showings with a solo third at the Famers and a T13 at Pebble Beach. The emerging American has gained true strokes across the board across those latest two events, including ranking fifth in true strokes gained putting.
I also value him finishing 13th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, eighth on approach, and 17th in putting at TPC Scottsdale last year.
Finally, a quick peek at the start of Novak’s PGA Tour career showcases a guy who strings together solid runs, and I’m expecting him to keep the good times rolling this week.
Waste Management Phoenix Open first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Billy Horschel Under 69.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Billy Horschel is heating up with a T21-T9 run, and he ranks 14th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, eighth on approach, and 13th in putting during the two-tournament stretch.
This will be the 14th consecutive year Horschel has played the Phoenix Open, and he’s played the weekend in each of the past two years while also gaining true strokes putting on the field in six of the past seven.
He was also third in true strokes gained on approach and eighth in true strokes gained putting last week at Pebble, and I’m anticipating the momentum carrying over at a track he’s very familiar with.
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +280
- Justin Thomas: +1200
- Hideki Matsuyama: +1600
- Sungjae Im: +2200
- Sam Burns: +2500
- Tom Kim: +3000
- Sepp Straka: +4000
- Sahith Theegala: +4000
- Corey Conners: +4500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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