We’re down to a 30-man field teeing it up at the famed East Lake Golf Club for the TOUR Championship, with the winner being named the 18th FedEx Cup Champion.
Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the TOUR Championship odds and he'll start the week with a two-shot lead at -10. The starting strokes have been finalized, with Xander Schauffele (-8), Hideki Matsuyama (-7), Rory McIlroy (-4), and Ludvig Aberg (-5) all looking to chase the World No. 1 down.
Here are our free golf picks for this week’s TOUR Championship at East Lake.
Best TOUR Championship picks
- Xander Schauffele to win outright (+250 at bet365)
- Russell Henley to win 72-hole stroke play (+2,800 at bet365)
- Sepp Straka over Matthieu Pavon (-200 at FanDuel)
- Shane Lowry over Sahith Theegala (-105 at bet365)
- Patrick Cantlay Round 1 Under 68.5 (-125 at FanDuel)
TOUR Championship outright picks
Pick to win: Xander Schauffele to win outright
+250 at bet365
Good luck finding a box Xander Schauffele doesn’t check heading to East Lake this week. He’s followed up his 2017 win here with six consecutive Top 10s, including a trio of runner-up finishes and two more Top 5s, and he’s also carded consecutive Top 5s to start the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
He's gained true strokes across the board for the season and in each of his past four events, and his numbers are insanely good across his past 10 events. He has Top-10 marks in all five true strokes gained metrics, including ranking second from tee to green and second in putting. The two-time major champion will begin the week at -8 and two back of Scottie Scheffler.
Sleeper pick: Russell Henley to win 72-hole stroke play
+2,800 at bet365
Russell Henley is returning to East Lake following a T14 finish last year while ranking fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and uncharacteristically losing true strokes on the greens (27th out of 30).I’m anticipating the tee-to-green game to carry over and him putting better this time around.
He enters ranked ninth in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 10th in true strokes gained putting, and second in driving accuracy across his past 11 events in a run that includes four Top 10s. The Georgia native also finished T3 here in 2017 as well as solo 12th in 2014.
TOUR Championship prop picks
Matchup pick: Sepp Straka over Matthieu Pavon
-200 at FanDuel
Matthiew Pavon is out of place at this stage of the PGA Tour season. He won in February and has another four Top 10s for the year, but his last was in the U.S. Open in June. The Frenchman has topped out with last week’s T33 in a 50-man field since. His metrics are worrisome and he’s never played competitively at East Lake.
Pavon is 30th in true strokes gained tee-to-green while losing strokes on approach, around the greens, and on them to respectively rank 29th, 30th, and 28th in this 30-man field across his past five events.
Sepp Straka hasn’t been leaps and bounds better, but he ranks seventh in driving accuracy and 12th in true strokes gained approach in this field across his past four tournaments. He's played this event each of the past two years (T14 and T7 results) and even played collegiate golf at nearby Georgia University.
Matchup pick: Shane Lowry over Sahith Theegala
-105 at bet365
There’s little to be encouraged about with Sahith Theegala’s recent form. His T6 at the 3M Open was followed up by a T46 in Memphis, and he lost true strokes across the board to finish last in the BMW Championship last week.
He ranks 28th in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and true strokes gained approach across his past three events. Theegala also finished 28th out of 30 here in 2022 while ranking 26th in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
Shane Lowry rebounded last week with true strokes gained across the board and a T13 finish. He’s debuting at East Lake, but his well-rounded game plays anywhere. The Irishman ranks 16th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 11th in true strokes gained approach, and 12th in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 10 events.
TOUR Championship first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Patrick Cantlay Under 68.5
-125 at FanDuel
The 2021 East Lake winner and FedEx Cup champ returns in excellent form. He’s carded five straight Top 25s and ranks fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and sixth in true strokes gained putting during the stretch. He followed the noted win with a T7 and solo fifth in his past two stops in Atlanta, and he has a 67.67 scoring average here over that three-year span.
Additionally, East Lake has added a Par 5 to climb to a Par 71, so there’s an extra birdie opportunity on the card this week. Cantlay ranks sixth in Par-5 scoring average on Tour this season, and he’s also 11th in Round 1 scoring average.
It’s worth noting this same prop is trading at -150 odds through bet365, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 8% with the -125 FanDuel price.
TOUR Championship odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +110
- Xander Schauffele: +230
- Hideki Matsuyama: +1,100
- Rory McIlroy: +1,600
- Ludvig Aberg: +2,000
- Collin Morikawa: +3,000
- Patrick Cantlay: +3,500
- Keegan Bradley: +3,500
- Wyndham Clark: +4,000
- Sam Burns: +4,000
- Viktor Hovland: +7,000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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