Bryson DeChambeau holds the solo lead after Saturday at -7. It’s likely just a four-horse race on Sunday as everyone at T5 or lower is at least five strokes back of the leader.
Here are my best US Open picks ahead of Round 4.
Best U.S. Open Round 4 picks
Bryson DeChambeau - Outright Winner (-110)
As I’ve hounded on all week, driving accuracy is of utmost importance at Pinehurst No. 2. You need to hit the fairways in order to land your next approach shot on the green as accurately as possible.
If you are hitting out of the rustic rough, it will be almost impossible for golfers to keep the ball on the green when it lands (even if you are fortunate enough for it to be accurate anyway). Subsequently, you will be forced to scramble on extremely complex green structures, which is the quickest way to run up your score here.
With that in mind, Bryson DeChambeau’s play off the tee has been all over the place the past two rounds, yet he still holds a commanding three-stroke lead over the rest of the field. That is how tremendous the rest of his game has been.
His wedges and irons are working perfectly despite the inaccurate tee shots that are killing everyone else. DeChambeau is following that up with terrific play on the greens, ranking fifth among the field in strokes gained putting.
He can afford to play more conservatively on Sunday with a three-stroke lead, so that means more lay-ups and safer shots off the tee, which has been his only weakness thus far. If DeChambeau starts hitting fairways more consistently as well, this tournament is over.
Pick: Bryson DeChambeau - Outright Winner (-110 at DraftKings)
Rory McIlroy - Top European (-150)
This market is essentially down to four guys: Rory McIlroy, Matthieu Pavon, Ludvig Aberg, and Tyrrell Hatton.
With that in mind, McIlroy holds a two-shot lead over Aberg and a five-shot lead over Hatton, and I’m not sure either of those tremendous talents are going to be able to chase down Rory on a Major Championship Sunday. Meanwhile, McIlroy is tied with Pavon at T2.
Pavon has been riding a red-hot putter this week, but he is just simply not on Rory’s level. On top of that, McIlroy is doing everything else better.
He has been better with his chipping and iron play, while his driver has been just as accurate as Pavon’s. Rory is also hitting more greens in regulation, and I don’t think Pavon’s putter is going to keep bailing him out.
Pick: Rory McIlroy - Top European (-150 at DraftKings)
Ludvid Aberg - Top Continental European (+100)
This play is another fade of Pavon, who is Aberg’s only competition in this market. The next closest guy in this market to those two is Sergio Garcia, who is T12 at +1.
So, can Aberg overtake Pavon despite the two-shot deficit entering Sunday? I believe so.
Again, Pavon has really just been riding a hot putter to get him to this point. Aberg’s putter has also been tremendous, but he also outranks Pavon in strokes gained on the approach, off the tee, driving accuracy, driving distance, and greens in regulation percentage.
Aberg’s triple bogey on 13 in Round 3 is the only reason he’s two strokes back of Pavon, and he should be able to make up for that one poor hole over an 18-hole sample size.
Pick: Ludvig Aberg - Top Continental European (+100 at DraftKings)
Latest U.S. Open odds
- Bryson DeChambeau (-110)
- Rory McIlroy (+320)
- Patrick Cantlay (+750)
- Ludvig Aberg (+1,800)
- Mathieu Pavon (+1,800)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2,000)
- Collin Morikawa (+5,500)
- Tony Finau (+6,000)
- Tyrell Hatton (+6,000)
- Xander Schauffele (+12,000)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
