We have arrived at the third major of the PGA Tour season, and it’s time to focus on the players and headlines on the course, rather than the controversial news off the tee boxes and greens. On Thursday morning, the 123rd installment of the U.S. Open gets underway at Los Angeles Country Club.
This is the first U.S. Open at LACC, but the second time in the past three years that the major has been in the Golden State.
We’ll check out a handful of sleepers who not only excel in the categories needed to win at this major, but also provide a decent value heading into LACC this weekend. Here are three sleeper picks to win the 2023 U.S. Open Championship.
Be sure to also check out Andrew Caley's two favorite U.S. Open prop picks heading into the weekend, as well as Tony Sartori's LIV vs. PGA picks.
2023 U.S. Open sleeper picks
Picks were made on 6/14/2023 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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Los Angeles Country Club key stats
This course is a Par 70 measuring at 7,423 yards, and we have Bermudagrass fairways and roughs, with Bentgrass greens. The good news is that the fairways are fairly wide, so driving accuracy isn’t a huge area of focus this week — although it certainly never hurts.
Areas of focus for bettors this year will be keying on golfers who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, as well as Strokes Gained: Total.
2023 U.S. Open sleeper predictions
Max Homa +2,800
I made the mistake of rolling with the 32-year-old six-time winner on the PGA Tour back at Oak Hill for the PGA Championship. He was able to make the cut — so at least there’s that — but he quickly faded over the weekend to 9-over and a T55 finish. Yikes.
While that’s certainly room for pause, I am a Cleveland Browns and Toronto Maple Leafs fan in real life, so I am a glutton for punishment. Let’s run it back with Homa at the LACC.
He simply checks off all of the boxes I laid out above. Homa ranks No. 6 on the PGA Tour in SG: Total in 49 measured rounds with a value of 1.820. In addition, he is No. 17 in SG: Tee-to-Green with a 1.080, while checking in No. 12 in SG: Approach the Green.
And if that’s not good enough, he also has a very positive 0.741 value in SG: Putting, ranking No. 5 on the PGA Tour. That should certainly serve him well in a major on the Bentgrass greens this weekend.
He ranks pretty well in Driving Distance at 302.8 yards, although that’s not necessarily a disqualifier if a golfer isn’t long off the tee box at this event. Just the same, he is just No. 92 in Driving Accuracy, and No. 189 in Total Driving Efficiency. The fairways are nice and wide, so that mitigates his penchant to be erratic from the tee.
Tyrell Hatton +3,300
England’s Hatton rolls into this event after posting a T3 at the RBC Canadian Open last weekend, and burned up the course with an 8-under 64 in the final round, matching his 64 from the second round of that event.
This is a guy who has been red-hot lately, posting three T5 finishes in the past five outings, while ending up with six consecutive T20 finishes. In fact, he has been at par, or Under par, in 10 of his past 11 rounds dating back to the first round at Oak Hill.
Speaking of which, Hatton was not fazed by the big stage of the second major, posting a T15 in the PGA Championship despite an embarrassing 7-over in the first round. Instead of just mailing it in, he rallied for an amazing paycheck and finish.
He has made the cut in seven straight events since missing the cut in early April at the Valero Texas Open, and he also had a runner-up finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. He also made the cut at The Masters, posting a T34.
Hatton also checks off plenty of the boxes for success at the LACC. He ranks No. 3 in SG: Total, No. 7 in SG: Tee-to-Green, No. 11 in SG: Off-the-Tee, and No. 17 in SG: Approach. If he struggles in any of the important metrics, he is just a mediocre No. 57 in SG: Around the Green. He does make up for it with an impressive show on the greens, ranking No. 7 in SG: Putting.
Wyndham Clark +8,000
If you’re hunting for a deep, deep sleeper, look no further than Wyndham Clark. Yes, he has just one career PGA Tour win, but that victory is fairly fresh — coming at the Wells Fargo Championship in early May at Quail Hollow.
To find success at the event on Bermudagrass greens, SG: Approach and SG: Off-the-Tee are some of the incredibly important stats for success. Sound familiar?
Clark ranks No. 23 in SG: Approach, although he is a mediocre No. 55 in SG: Off-the-Tee. He is also No. 15 in SG: Total, while checking in No. 28 in SG: Tee-to-Green.
And again, while not terribly important, Clark is No. 7 on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance at 314.0 yards: Some mighty fine power off the tee box. That’s a result of his amazing club head speed, which ranks No. 6 on the PGA Tour. Clark is also No. 26 in Greens in Regulation Percentage (67.94%), which is always helpful for a solid showing at any tournament.
Clark’s putting leaves a little to be desired, but it's not like it's not terrible. For a dark horse, he certainly has tremendous potential — especially at 80/1 odds.
