The final stop of the Florida Swing is here, and it’s a solid field set to peg it at the Copperhead Course this week.
Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, and Xander Schauffele headlined the favorites in the Valspar Championship odds, and I’m filling out my betting cards with a trio of sleeper and longshot golf picks slotting into the middle tier of the board.
Valspar Championship sleeper picks
- Glover to win outright (+4500 at FanDuel)
- Hovland to win outright (+5500 at bet365)
- Griffin to win outright (+6000 at FanDuel)
Picks were made on 3-17 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Valspar Championship sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Lucas Glover
+4500 at FanDuel
Lucas Glover gained true strokes across the board during his T3 finish at THE PLAYERS, which included finishing seventh in true strokes gained tee-to-green. The veteran is accurate off the tee and can strategically navigate tracks demanding precision. Copperhead definitely fits the bill.
I also value Glover’s experience here. This will be his 20th competitive trip to the track, and he finished solo-11th last year and has five more Top-25 finishes.
Additionally, the five-time PGA Tour winner has proven to be a form player who strings together strong finishes in bunches, and I’m expecting him to be in the thick of the race to win again this Sunday.
Sleeper pick to win: Viktor Hovland
+5500 at bet365
This will be the third trip to Copperhead for Viktor Hovland, and he carded a T3 in his debut in 2021.
There’s no sugarcoating the 2023 FedEx Cup champion's current form. Hovland has missed consecutive cuts, and his short game is a mess, with ranks of 131 in true strokes gained putting and 134 in true strokes gained around the green in this field across six events this season.
Still, he’s a six-time PGA Tour winner and world-class ball-striker and ranks third in this field in true strokes gained on approach the past two weeks. If he tidies up his short game, his tee-to-green game will do the heavy lifting.
Sleeper pick to win: Ben Griffin
+6000 at FanDuel
The arrow is pointing straight up for Ben Griffin, and he flashed his upside with consecutive T4 finishes in the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic, where he gained true strokes across the board, including gaining +1.55 true strokes tee-to-green, +1.11 on approach, and +1.02 putting on the field per round.
His play has dipped the past two weeks, and while he missed the cut last week at THE PLAYERS, the weekend off to reset for the Valspar could prove to be a blessing because his tee-to-green game and approach play dipped considerably with identical -0.74 marks per round the past two events.
He's played the weekend in both competitive trips to Copperhead, including finishing T17 last season. I also value that he finished 12th in true strokes gained putting in each of the past two years, and I’m anticipating that pairing perfectly with improved ball-striking in Palm Harbour this week.
