The 155th running of the Belmont Stakes — the final jewel of the 2023 Triple Crown series — happens this evening at New York's Belmont Park.
A field of nine will compete in this edition of the "Test of the Champion," led by Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite Forte, who didn't compete in Louisville after a minor injury. But he's back for the Belmont Stakes, and is the 5-2 morning-line selection.
This race offers some enticing wagering opportunities, so let’s dig into the Belmont Stakes odds and determine how bettors should play the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta. And don't forget to check out my Belmont Stakes picks and predictions for even more insights.
Why make a trifecta, superfecta, or exacta pick?
It’s a great feeling to be able to pick the winner of the Belmont Stakes, but those settling for simple win betting are leaving the chance for a big payday behind.
For example, the average $2 superfecta payout over the last seven renewals of the Belmont is a healthy $8,285.50. If you exclude the chalky $121.40 payout from 2021, the figure jumps to $9,646.20 over the other six runnings.
Hitting the Belmont Stakes can result in a terrific payday. To learn more about how to bet on the Belmont and betting trifectas, superfectas, and exactas, check out my pari-mutuel betting guide.
$20 No Sweat Belmont Bet
Instant Bonus Offer
Bet $1, Get $200 Bet Credits
No code required
Belmont Stakes Exacta pick
The exacta requires the bettor to select the Top 2 finishers of a race in exact order. The minimum wager at Belmont Park is $1. Bettors can also “box” an exacta, meaning the two (or more) selected horses on a ticket can finish in any order, albeit at an increased cost.
No. 7 Hit Show is my top pick to win the race at a generous 10/1.
He was last seen running fifth in the Kentucky Derby, after getting a bit too close to a brutally fast pace in the "Run for the Roses." Though Hit Show went the wrong way in the Churchill Downs stretch, his pedigree certainly doesn't preclude him from getting the demanding 1 1/2-mile distance in the Belmont.
He's sired by Candy Ride out of a Tapit mare named Actress, who was a multiple graded stakes winner going route distances. Candy Ride has sired numerous classic-distance horses of note, namely Breeders' Cup Classic champ Gun Runner. Tapit has sired four Belmont Stakes victors, including Essential Quality in 2021.
Essential Quality was trained by Brad Cox, who saddles Hit Show on Saturday. Manny Franco, who guided Tiz the Law to a Belmont victory in 2020, will be the jockey.
No. 3 Arcangelo has just four career starts to his name, making him the lightest-raced runner in the Belmont Stakes field. His latest outing makes him a serious player in here at 8/1, and the fact that he still has room to grow only makes him more appealing.
The Jena Antonucci trainee made his stakes debut a winning one on May 10, taking the Grade III Peter Pan over this course with a determined and well-rated effort. He had the services of 2023 Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Javier Castellano that day, and the veteran pilot will be aboard once more.
No. 1 Tapit Shoes is another offspring of three-time leading North American sire Tapit with a chance to shine at 12 furlongs, and at 20/1 to boot.
Though Tapit Shoes has just a maiden victory to his credit, he has improved from start to start in his brief five-race career, most recently landing second in the Bath House Row Stakes going 1 1/8-miles at Oaklawn Park. He was close to the pace that day but showed no signs of fatigue, even as he was caught and passed late by Red Route One.
Tapit Shoes should also be close to a fairly moderate pace, as he drew the rail and may only see National Treasure try to contend with him for the lead. Cox is the trainer, and former Belmont Stakes winner Jose Ortiz sees fit to pick up the assignment.
$5 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 1 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 7 Hit Show
- Second place: No. 1 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 7 Hit Show
Total = $30
Belmont Stakes Trifecta pick
The trifecta tasks the bettor with determining the first three finishers of a race in exact order. The payoff can be much higher than the exacta, but both the ticket cost and the risk factor increase significantly, even with a minimum wager amount of 50 cents.
To keep costs down, I'm going to roll with top choice Hit Show as the key runner in my trifecta plays. He'll have to finish in the Top 3 in order for any of these plays to cash. In addition to Arcangelo and Tapit Shoes, I'm also going to throw No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, and No. 8 Angel of Empire into the mix.
Tapit Trice's rally in the Kentucky Derby came up short, as he checked in seventh. But he's 4-for-6 lifetime and won the Grade I Blue Grass two-back. He's also trained by Todd Pletcher, a four-time winner of this race, and has Luis Saez aboard at 3/1.
National Treasure (5/1) needs no introduction off his Preakness Stakes victory for Bob Baffert. The talent is there, but can he carry his speed over 12 furlongs, and will he and John Velazquez get as good a setup as he did at Pimlico?
No. 6 Forte (5/2, morning-line favorite) may have the weakest pedigree in the field for Saturday's distance being by noted sprint influence Violence, but he's already outrun his breeding to some extent by taking the Grade I Florida Derby at nine panels. He's lost just once in seven tries to date, and has both Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. in his corner.
No. 8 Angel of Empire (7/2) gives Cox another live runner, along with Hit Show and Tapit Shoes. He's the best returning finisher from the Kentucky Derby, as he ran third after closing into a fast pace. It remains to be seen if Flavien Prat will get another ideal setup like that here.
$1 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 7 Hit Show
Second place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Third place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
50 cent trifecta pick:
To win: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Second place: No. 7 Hit Show
Third place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
50 cent trifecta pick:
To win: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Second place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Third place: No. 7 Hit Show
Total = $60
Belmont Stakes Superfecta pick
The superfecta is even tougher to nail down than the trifecta, as it requires the bettor to pick the first four finishers of a race in exact order. Of course, the potential payday can be tremendous. The minimum wager amount is just 10 cents, making it somewhat easier to get involved. There aren’t nearly as many combinations to cover in the Belmont as there were in the Kentucky Derby, so bettors can afford to get a little creative and spread a bit more.
I’ll lean on Hit Show once again, but play only Tapit Shoes, Arcangelo, and Angel of Empire in the Top 2 rungs. This will keep costs reasonable and diversify the wagers from the trifecta, while relying more heavily on outcomes I believe are more likely.
50 cent superfecta pick:
To win: No. 7 Hit Show
Second place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Third place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Fourth place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
50 cent superfecta pick:
To win: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Second place: No. 7 Hit Show
Third place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Fourth place: No. 1 Tapit Shoes, No. 2 Tapit Trice, No. 3 Arcangelo, No. 4 National Treasure, No. 6 Forte, No. 8 Angel of Empire
Total = $60
