95% of NFL Circa Survivor Entries Eliminated Following Week 3

Another puzzling loss by the Bengals put an exclamation point on what's been a bloodbath for chalk-players through three weeks of play in the NFL. Less than 5% of participants in Circa's Survivor pool have made it to Week 4, a record low.

Brad Senkiw - News Editorat Covers.com
Brad Senkiw • News Editor
Sep 24, 2024 • 11:30 ET • 4 min read
Burrow Bengals NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It took just three weeks to knock out 95.5% of the Circa Sports Survivor’s NFL contest entries. 

Week 2’s carnage that eliminated over 4,000 entries carried over to Week 3 in the contest run by the Las Vegas sportsbook. 

Monday night saw 988 participants — or 61% of the remaining field — picking Cincinnati to win, the most of any team in Week 3. However, the Bengals were upset by the Washington Commanders, 38-33. 

The Browns, Buccaneers, and Raiders rounded out the top four most-picked teams. All four were favored by at least 5.5 points but all of them lost straight up, knocking out another 3,100 entries vying for the $14.26 million prize pool. Cleveland’s loss to a winless Giants team on Sunday cost 931 participants their entry. 

The second consecutive bloodbath leaves just 642 entries remaining out of 14,266 with 17 more weeks to go in the contest. Each remaining entry currently has an implied value of $22,000, up from the $3,682 after Week 2. 

Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets got 445 entries through, the most of any Week 3 winner, when they knocked off the New England Patriots 24-3 on Thursday night.

Early exits

This has been the wildest start to Circa Survivor, and the 4.5% remaining entries are the fewest heading into Week 4 since the contest began 2020. 

There were more entries (675) in a pool of 1,390 left after three weeks in the first year of the contest despite this season's pool drawing the largest number of participants ever.  

Last year, 26.8% of the 9,267 entries made it to Week 4, 25.3% got out of Week 3 alive in 2022. In 2021, a ridiculous 71.5% of participants were still playing, and 48.6% were around for Week 4 in 2020.

There was also a bloodbath in Week 3 last year when 58.2% of the field was eliminated, but it took 10 weeks to get under 700 entries in 2023.

Stop picking the Bengals

This is the second time that the Bengals punished the field. A Week 1 loss to the Patriots knocked out 4,895 entries. 

The entry fee for Circa Survivor is $1,000, and the contest lasts 20 weeks as the games during Thanksgiving and Christmas are broken out into separate weeks.

However, multiple entries are usually left to split the total prize pool. Last year, four made it to the end. There were two players who split the pool in 2022 and five in 2021. In 2020, the only year Circa Survivor featured just 18 weeks, 35 entries made it to the end. 

Circa Sports has hinted at starting the contest over if the original one ends early.

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