Sportsbooks got burned during March Madness when bettor-backed favorites won the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball titles.
When it comes to the NBA Finals, which gets underway Thursday, that is not the case.
Bettors are getting their money down on the underdog Dallas Mavericks to upset the Boston Celtics in the best-of-seven series, meaning the sportsbooks will be hoping for green to make the green.
Aron Wattleworth, trading leader at bet365, said with Boston being the favorite in the NBA outright market all season long, one would think the Celtics winning would be a bad result for the online sportsbook.
“The reality is they aren’t, and given all the action the teams that aren’t there brought, we find ourselves in a decent spot with those futures,” Wattleworth said.
Pouring in on the Mavs
At BetMGM, which has the Celtics listed as a -225 favorite to win the NBA title, 85% of the tickets and 80% of the handle are on the Mavericks.
.@celtics -250 to win Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) June 5, 2024
81% of bets are on @dallasmavs (+200) to win at #BetMGM pic.twitter.com/k397923Yjk
Fanatics Sportsbook opened series pricing with Boston -215, but, “Dallas action has been pouring in ever since, with 84.8% of the tickets and 82.0% of the handle coming in on the underdog over that span,” the company said Wednesday.
Since the start of the playoffs, the Mavs have received more tickets to win it all than Boston, accounting for 68.2% of the bets and 69.2% of the amount wagered.
The Celtics at -225 to win the series still have the second-most tickets and handle of any NBA Finals market at Fanatics.
Since the Finals matchup was set last week, 89% of bettors have been on the Mavericks at ESPN BET, according to figures from the online operator.
Star or longshot?
One of the most popular futures markets since the championship series was set last week is NBA Finals MVP and the top two players getting the action are no surprise.
At DraftKings, Boston’s Jayson Tatum, the -115 favorite, has received 11% of the tickets and a leading 20% of the handle. Mavericks star Luka Doncic is listed second at +205 and is getting the most bets (15%) and second-most money (16%). He’s also the favorite at Fanatics to lead all players in scoring, assists, and 3-pointers for the series.
Fanatics began MVP pricing with Tatum at -105 but he’s moved to an even shorter -120. Still, he’s received 33.2% of the tickets while Kyrie Irving at +2,000 is second at 27.3%.
The veteran guard playing in his fourth NBA Finals and first with the Mavs is the biggest Finals MVP liability for BetMGM at +1,800.
Jaylen Brown, Boston’s other star, is priced between +600 and +650 at online sportsbooks, but he’s only getting 17.5% of the money at Fanatics and 14% at DraftKings.
Additionally, Derrick White has gone from +5,000 to +3,500 at Fanatics after getting 9% of the bets in the MVP market.
Leading off
Bettors don’t prefer the Eastern Conference champion Celtics in the series, even though oddsmakers have them as a 6.5-point favorite in Thursday’s Game 1.
“Although the Boston Celtics are the -250 chalk here for Game 1, you’d normally expect a fair majority to be taking them straight up,” Wattleworth said. “However, of all tickets, the current rate of play is slightly favoring Dallas, though the amount of handle is bigger on Boston, mainly due to larger singles and parlays overall.”
The Mavericks are getting 74% of the bets and 65% of the handle to cover the spread in Game 1 at BetMGM.
ESPN BET moved the points total from 214.5 to 215.5 by Thursday morning as 82% of the tickets and 89% of the handle have come in on the over.
Dallas’ Dereck Lively over 1.5 assists is the most popular player prop at BetMGM.
