The College Football Playoff continues this week with marquee matchups between Notre Dame-Penn State and Ohio State-Texas, and the public is taking a similar approach as they did in the quarterfinals.
“The sportsbook will be cheering for underdogs to cover,” BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle said.
“Bettors are backing Ohio State (-6) and Notre Dame (-2.5) in their respective College Football Playoff Semifinal. The sportsbook will be cheering for the underdogs to cover.”
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 7, 2025
– Michael Ranftle, Senior Trader, @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/kGDxnJjZoF
Notre Dame takes on Penn State on Thursday in the Orange Bowl as a 1.5-point favorite before Ohio State (-6) faces Texas in the Cotton Bowl on Friday. Favorites have won every game so far in the new 12-team format and have covered the spread in all but one (Texas-Arizona State).
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish have covered 10 consecutive games and enter the Orange Bowl coming off an impressive victory over second-seeded Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The sixth-seeded Nittany Lions were big favorites in a pair of easy wins over SMU and Boise State, so it’s not a surprise that the public is on Notre Dame.
Following a loss to Michigan in the regular-season finale that cost the eighth-seeded Buckeyes a shot at the Big Ten title, Ohio State dominated ninth-seeded Tennessee and top-seeded Oregon in the playoff, winning by a combined score of 82-41. Fifth-seeded Texas looked good against Clemson but needed overtime to survive Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.
Sportsbooks provided Covers with betting insights on both games.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State
The Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds are the closest in terms of betting splits, but it’s still pretty one-sided. Notre Dame is getting 69% of the handle and 66% of the bets at DraftKings.
BetMGM reported similar numbers with the Irish claiming 66% of the tickets and 62% of the handle. ESPN BET has seen the closest to even action with 40% of the bets and 46.5% of the handle backing Penn State.
The number of moneyline wagers accepted is about equal at ESPN BET while DraftKings has seen 58% of the money and 54% of the tickets come in on Notre Dame.
The total has seen the most movement, opening at 50.5 and coming down to 45.5 at BetMGM, which reported 65% of the action and 66% of the money backing the under.
Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love is getting the bulk of the player prop action. His anytime touchdown wagers with odds of -145 are the most of any player in the game. Love scoring the first touchdown at +475 is second while under Love’s total of 35.5 rushing yards (-115) is the third most-bet Orange Bowl player prop.
Ohio State vs. Texas
When it comes to Ohio State vs. Texas odds and picks, bettors love the Buckeyes.
Ohio State is catching 81% of the spread bets and 79% of the handle at DraftKings. BetMGM’s seen over 70% of both on Ohio State while ESPN BET reported 83.8% of the handle is coming in on the favorite.
ESPN BET has also seen nearly 84% of the moneyline handle on Ohio State at -225.
A Texas win would also be good for BetMGM in the national championship market as the Buckeyes are the sportsbook’s largest liability. Ohio State has received 27.5% of the futures market’s money and 16.5% of the tickets.
The total has seen a more interesting split than the spread. At DraftKings, 53% of the bets are on over 53.5, but 76% of the tickets are betting on a high-scoring game. ESPN BET has seen 84% of the bets and 75% of the handle on the over.
Ohio State freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith has the most-bet player prop with the anytime touchdown odds of -125 at BetMGM. OSU running back Treveyon Henderson’s over 22.5 receiving yards (-115) is the sportsbook’s third-most wagered player prop behind Smith to score the first touchdown at +550.
Big bets
Not all the bets are on the favorites. A couple of sizable wagers have come in on the underdogs.
A bettor in Tennessee put down $165,000 on Penn State +2 (-110) to net $150,000 in Thursday’s game.
A bettor in Tennessee placed $165K on Penn State +2 (-110) against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl 👀
— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 6, 2025
Potential win: $150K 🤑 pic.twitter.com/TTKVf33Fbi
BetMGM reported that a bettor placed a $90,000 wager on the Texas moneyline at +185 for Friday.
