This may be the most-bet Canadian election in history.
Surely, the news that Canadians will vote on Apr. 28 had a few folks scrambling to make a bet on the outcome.
However, the changing landscape for online wagering means betting on Canada's 45th federal election won't be exactly like it was for past trips to the polls. If anything, it will be bigger and even more international.
That's because of the growing presence of online sportsbooks, both regulated and unregulated, as well as "prediction markets" that can offer de facto wagering on basically anything.
As a result, betting on this year's federal election seems likely to eclipse that of any previous vote in Canada.
A big change at home
The first bit of proof can be found in Canada's most populous province. And in Ontario, betting on the federal election could first mean logging on to bet365, BetMGM, or FanDuel.
Those online sports betting operators have Canadian election odds up and are authorized by the provincial regulator to take action from residents. That wasn't necessarily the case in 2021, the year of Canada's last federal election.
Ontario only launched its competitive iGaming market in Apr. 2022, which is when private-sector sportsbook operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel were allowed to start taking bets in the province.
Now, there are 50 provincially regulated iGaming operators in Ontario running sites that offer online sports betting, casino gambling, and poker. That's in addition to the government-owned Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp.'s sportsbook, which isn't taking bets on the election.
At any rate, recent polling suggests the governing Liberals and opposition Conservatives are basically tied, and that's what the Ontario oddsboards are saying as well.
At bet365, the Grits and Tories were both priced Monday afternoon as -120 favourites to win the election, an implied probability of 54.55%. Later in the day, the Conservatives inched ahead to become -125 favourites while the Liberals' odds lengthened a touch to -110.
Also on Monday, BetMGM had the Liberals as -137 favourites to win the most seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives, meanwhile, were +100 underdogs, and the New Democratic Party trailed as +6600 longshots.
BetMGM told Covers 66% of tickets and 86.2% of the handle were on the Conservatives to win the most seats. The Liberals accounted for 33.3% of bets and 13.8% of money wagered.
A bigger change abroad
Outside of Ontario, it’s not as easy or acceptable to bet on the election, but it’s possible. And it's possible in a whole new way, which could add to the overall amount of wagering.
Notably, government-owned sportsbooks like PlayNow in British Columbia (and PROLINE+ in Ontario) are happy to take bets on U.S. politics but are leery of doing the same for domestic elections.
Not everyone has the same hangups, though. And it's those options that will no doubt attract a decent amount of interest from bettors in Canada and abroad who want to wager on next month's election.
There are, for instance, offshore sportsbooks that remain accessible to Canadians. These account for a good chunk of the online gambling outside Ontario, the only province licensing multiple private-sector operators to take bets.
However, offshore sportsbooks take bets in Canada without authorization from provinces. And at least one, Manitoba, is pursuing legal action against an offshore operator. That operator is Antigua and Barbuda-based Bodog, which offers betting on the Canadian election.
Canadian lottery corporations outside Ontario have also alleged some Ontario-regulated sportsbook operators are using their sites to nudge bettors in other provinces to international affiliates.
Ontario requires iGaming site users to be in the province to bet, which would stop someone in Manitoba from betting on the election with, say, FanDuel's Ontario site. Sites based outside Ontario may not have the same restrictions, though.
BREAKING: Conservatives in Canada take back the lead for the projected next Prime Minister.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 24, 2025
TODAY:
🔵 Pierre Poilievre: 51%
🔴 Mark Carney: 49%
LAST WEEK:
🔵 Pierre Poilievre: 40%
🔴 Mark Carney: 60%https://t.co/2pKxtt6Eem
In addition to “grey market” sports betting sites regulated abroad or outside any given province (just not in that province), there's a newer entrant into the world of de facto wagering that's also available in Canada: Polymarket.
The cryptocurrency-based “prediction market” lets users buy and sell “shares” of certain event outcomes, such as an election. It's widely available around the world with a few notable exceptions, including the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Ontario.
Polymarket offers a variety of wagering opportunities, such as who will win the NCAA men's basketball tournament this year or what the price of Bitcoin will be on a certain date. And although Americans aren't supposed to trade on its platform, Polymarket rose to prominence because of the betting it facilitated on U.S. presidential election odds last year.
Users wagered more than US$3.6 billion on that race at Polymarket alone. This is the sort of customer base Polymarket can now turn loose on Canadian politics.
But Canada isn't attracting the same level of action yet at Polymarket, which was founded in 2020.
As of Monday afternoon, US$20 million had been traded in shares of who will be the next prime minister of Canada following the Apr. 28 election.
Recently installed Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre were neck-and-neck in the odds, with the pricing of their "yes" shares sitting at around 50 cents apiece.
A holder of those shares would stand to make up to 50 cents in profit if they're correct in their wagering, as the contracts will settle either at $1 for a correctly predicted outcome or at nothing for a losing wager. Users can buy or sell shares at any time before a market is settled.
While the action is light thus far, the newer wagering option is there as Canada-U.S. relations have gotten testy over President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation.
Moreover, Canadian politics may eventually prove interesting to bettors who developed an appetite for political wagering last November. This could be especially true given the chillier and newsier climate between the two countries of late.
The United States of gambling on anything
Yet it’s not just offshore where changes have happened that make more betting on Canadian elections possible.
Another difference between this Canadian election and the last one is there's now an easily accessible avenue for (currently) legal political wagering in the United States, a market that Polymarket is not supposed to serve.
The new avenue is Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market that is similar to Polymarket and that allows customers to buy and sell event contracts in all 50 U.S. states.
Kalshi likewise offered wagering opportunities on November’s presidential election, with users trading more than $500 million in contracts on the race.
It was a landmark moment in U.S. election betting, as state-regulated sportsbooks are restricted from taking election action, which left gamblers looking to make a legal wager wanting.
Now, mixed in with offerings tied to sports, culture, and crypto, Kalshi has multiple wagering markets up for the Canadian election, such as who will be the next prime minister following the Apr. 28 vote.
Massive swing in the Canadian PM market
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) March 24, 2025
The Liberal party held a 20% odds lead this weekend
It is now 3%
As of Monday afternoon, a Kalshi user could buy a "yes" contract for Carney to remain prime minister for 53 cents apiece, making him the favourite at that time. If Carney and the Liberals triumph next month, the holder of that “yes” contract would net another 47 cents.
Even so, wagering on Kalshi remains relatively light compared to regulated sportsbooks, and its Canadian election markets have yet to take off.
For example, as of Monday afternoon, trading volume for the company's next prime minister markets was around US$425,000. Furthermore, event contracts tied to Ontario's provincial election in February garnered just US$6,537 in trading volume.
Still, interest could pick up the closer we get to Election Day.
Kalshi was aware of this phenomenon as it fought for its right to offer U.S. election wagering via the courts.
The court fight was prompted by the pushback Kalshi had received from its regulator over the legality of the company's political products. However, Kalshi has prevailed thus far in federal court, which made it possible to offer event contracts in time for last year's presidential election.
While the legal battle technically continues, there's now a new administration and president in charge that appear more friendly to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. This is partly because those markets suggested a greater likelihood of Donald Trump returning to the White House than public opinion polling.
Since the election, Donald Trump Jr. has joined Kalshi as an advisor. What's more, a Kalshi board member has been nominated as the next chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the regulator overseeing the company.
🇨🇦 We are GO for the Canadian General Election!
— William Kedjanyi (@KeejayOV3) March 23, 2025
Odds on who wins the most seats with @StarSports_Bet:
🔴 Liberal Party: 8/11
🔵 Conservative Party: 1/1
🟠 New Democratic Party: 150/1
⚜️ Bloc Québécois: 200/1
🟢 Green Party: 500/1
🟣 People’s Party: Available on request https://t.co/Q0r48nXE8L
Kalshi has expanded its operations as well, partnering with popular trading platform Robinhood and adding a variety of new contracts for users to trade, including those connected to sporting events and, yes, Canada’s election.
For additional CanCon, the company has contracts tied to how many seats a Canadian political party will win in the election, whether Canada will be the 51st state, and if Canada will block U.S. access to Pornhub before June, among other things.
Common(wealth) interests
All of the above could give a big boost to the overall amount of wagering on Canada's election compared to previous trips to the polls.
North Americans also won't be the only ones wagering. Sportsbooks abroad are standing by to take bets from punters interested in Canadian politics or just election betting in general.
Among others, the U.K.-based bookmaker Star Sports was quick to throw up odds for who will win the most seats in the Canadian election, with the Liberals initially priced as -138 favourites. The Conservatives, meanwhile, opened as +100 underdogs.
