After a woeful October for sports betting operators, November was a month to remember before the momentum shifted back to extreme bettor-favorable outcomes in the year’s final month.
An historic run shifted revenue projections and had a significant revenue impact on U.S. states.
Now that most states have reported their December figures, eight of the top 10 markets by handle generated less revenue in December than they did during an unprecedented October, and just three states in that group saw their holds rise.
Behind it was the success of NFL favorites going 221-111 and 169-157-6 for an entire season. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins told investors it was a betting run unseen in over 40 years.
FanDuel said last month that the season was the “most customer-friendly since the launch of online sports betting with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years.”
The two leaders in U.S. market share were forced to lower their revenue expectations for 2024 as popularly bet teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Philadelphia Eagles won at high rates late in the season.
Up and down
The amount wagered in 38 legal sports betting states has never been higher than in 2024. And while parlay holds still helped make sportsbooks profitable during the NFL season, they were unable to capitalize on the huge handles.
Coming off a successful September for the house, 16 of the 31 states that reported October revenue figures fell below 7% during the bettor-friendly month with one in double digits and three at at least 9%.
“October is not going to look great for anybody relative to what they were expecting,” Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg said late last year.
This was followed by massive revenue growth in November. New York, the most lucrative market in the U.S., set a national monthly record with more than $231 million in revenue. Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, among others, set all-time monthly reported highs.
Seven of the top 10 states by handle produced double-digit holds in November as the NFL course-corrected in favor of the books.
That came crashing down in December when 24 of the 31 markets produced win rates below 7%. None of those states reached a double-digit hold, and just two produced win rates of 9% or higher.
States struggle
| State | October hold | November hold | December hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 7.6% | 10.2% | 6.6% |
| Illinois | 5.6% | 10.1% | 7.1% |
| New Jersey | 6.8% | 9.7% | 5.2% |
| Ohio | 9% | 11.4% | 5.8% |
| Pennsylvania | 6.8% | 11% | 5.3% |
| Nevada | 3.6% | 8.1% | 1.8% |
| Massachusetts | 6.7% | 10.6% | 7.5% |
| Virginia | 7.8% | 11.3% | 6.7% |
| Colorado | 6.5% | 8.5% | 4.6% |
| Maryland | 8.4% | 12.9% | 7.2% |
New York’s revenue fell by more than $70 million month-over-month. New Jersey’s profits fell 48% from November to December. Neighboring Pennsylvania posted its second-lowest hold ever.
Football cost Nevada operators $2.1 million, making December the first losing NFL month in the Silver State in 12 years. The 1.8% hold on all sports betting was one of the worst ever recorded in Nevada.
North Carolina, a newcomer to online sports betting in 2024, reached a double-digit hold in six of the Tar Heel State’s first seven months of operation. However, the operators’ win rate dipped to single digits twice in the final three months of 2024.
Ohio’s 5.8% was its lowest in two years of sports betting. Michigan reported a 3.3% hold in December.
Turning it around
Based on early 2025 returns, the dynamic has shifted back toward sportsbooks. Of the 12 states that have reported January revenue so far, all have produced holds above 9%, and nine reached double digits.
The NFL playoffs very much went the way of the operators, and Super Bowl LIX produced extremely positive results for the sportsbooks with the Eagles demolishing the Chiefs 40-22.
Nevada made an all-time high of $22 million on the Big Game. New York operators cleared a massive $47 million in revenue from the game and futures wagers.
DraftKings recently reported an 11% actual win rate in January and a 13% hold for the first two weeks of February.
