Welcome to “must-win” week in the NFL.
Since 1990, only 11.2% of teams that start 0-2 have gone on to make the playoffs. When going 0-3, that number drops to 2.5%; only four teams in league history have gotten to the postseason with that bad a start.
Over the last three seasons, no 0-3 squads have pulled it off, despite 14 teams each year making the NFL playoffs.
With nine teams staring down a third consecutive loss this week and virtually no chance at the postseason if they falter, are bettors backing desperation?
“A must-win game is a fun storyline but that does not always translate into betting interest,” Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM, said. “Half (of the 0-3 teams) are getting the majority of bets in their respective matchups.”
Trouble in Big D
One of the teams playing in Dallas on Sunday will end up in the worst shape possible, and bettors have made it evident which side they think that will be.
Baltimore is coming off a devastating home loss to the Raiders, while the Cowboys got walloped by the Saints at home.
Those results helped lead to bettors getting wallopped by the sportsbooks. This week the Ravens, who are a 1-point favorite at Dallas, are getting 68% of the bets and 72% of the handle at BetMGM.
At ESPN BET, where it opened as a pick’em before moving to -1, the Ravens are getting 70.2% of the tickets and 54.8% of the money. However, 66.2% of the bets and 55.9% of the moneyline handle is on the Cowboys at -115.
The spread bets are even more lopsided at Fanatics Sportsbook, which reported 81% of the tickets and 90.5% of the money is on the Ravens -0.5.
“Clearly bettors think this is a must-win game for the Ravens after their 0-2 start,” Fanatics senior editor Max Meyer said. “Not only have the Ravens been a lopsided spread bet, but they’re drawing the majority of the moneyline action for this contest too. The lack of Cowboys interest also shows how much things can change in the NFL week over week. Last Sunday morning, no team had more bets and money to cover than Dallas against the Saints.”
Staring at 0-3
Among the other six 0-2 teams, the Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, and Jacksonville Jaguars all entered the season with clear playoff aspirations.
LA has bigger problems than just a poor start to the season. The Rams have been plagued by injuries, including the loss of another receiver, Cooper Kupp, last week. Now they get the 49ers, a team also ailing but mad after a road loss to the Vikings. This week, 43% of the bets and 57.5% of the handle are on the Rams at +6.5 at ESPN BET.
The Bengals, who take on Washington (1-1) on Monday night, blew a late lead at Kansas City last week, and bettors are backing Cincinnati (-7) to the tune of over 70% of both tickets and money.
Hoping to avoid 0-3, the Jaguars (+5) play Buffalo (2-0) in another MNF game, but 56.7% of the bets and 53% of the handle at ESPN BET are on the first-place Bills.
Backing the…Panthers?
Nobody, including Carolina fans, wanted anything to do with the Panthers last week against the Chargers as the offense continued to look like a disaster.
The Raiders opened as a touchdown favorite over Carolina at Fanatics Sportsbook early in the week.
With the announcement this week that second-year quarterback Bryce Young has been benched in favor of veteran Andy Dalton, things have changed for this 0-2 team in full desperation mode.
“The Raiders easily had the most money of any team to cover its Week 3 spread before Young was benched,” Meyer said. “As soon as the news broke, Panthers +7 was hit hard. We finally started getting Raiders money again once the spread reached -5.5. There may not be a bigger indictment for where Young is as a quarterback than the subsequent line move and Panthers action from a guy like Dalton being named the new starter.”
Before Young’s benching, 77.1% of the spread bets and 97.8% of the handle were on the Raiders. As of Friday, the Panthers were getting the majority of tickets at 52.4% while the handle was still heavily skewed toward Las Vegas at 73%.
The “most” teams
Fanatics noted that eight Week 3 teams getting the majority of the tickets to cover the spread have received under 55% of those bets, and there aren’t many “clear-cut public sides.”
Still, there are plenty of heavily-bet teams and lopsided action.
At BetMGM, the high-flying, surprisingly 2-0 Saints have received the highest number of bets and handle of any team in the league. In the most-bet game of the week, New Orleans is a 3-point favorite at home against Philadelphia on Sunday.
The Packers are the most-bet underdog to win outright at +120 at Tennessee this week. Bears-Colts with a point total of 43.5 is getting the most over wagers, while Commanders-Bengals at 47 is the most-bet under of the week at BetMGM.
ESPN BET’s most lopsided spread handle is Chiefs -3 at Falcons with 72.5% of the money backing the reigning Super Bowl champs this week. The Buccaneers are getting the most spread tickets at 76.4% as a 6.5-point favorite against Denver. That’s also ESPN BET’s most lopsided total as 92% of the money is on the over 40.5. As for unders, a whopping 95% of the handle is on Giants-Browns at 38.5.
With Deebo Samuel out of the lineup for the 49ers this week, it’s no surprise that Brandon Aiyuk has the most-bet player prop at over 68.5 receiving yards at BetMGM.
