The inclement weather is behind us, and it’s time for some baseball on Thursday — 18 innings worth of it, to be precise.
After Wednesday’s game was postponed due to Mother Nature, the Los Angeles Angels (52-49) and Detroit Tigers (46-55) prepare for a doubleheader Thursday to complete the three-game series.
The second game of the doubleheader features Patrick Sandoval on the bump for the Angels and Matt Manning for the Tigers.
Looking at the MLB odds, the Angels are slight favorites and the line is moving in their direction. Is that early action warranted? Find out in my MLB picks and predictions for Game 2 between the Angels vs. Tigers on Thursday, July 27.
Angels vs Tigers odds
Angels vs Tigers predictions
The Angels have found a bit of momentum here in late July, winning six of their last seven games. That’s been enough for management to buy in on this squad in hopes of making a playoff push, acquiring Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez from the Chicago White Sox and announcing they will not be shopping the sport’s brightest star, Shohei Ohtani.
A red-hot lineup has fueled that recent surge. The Angels have been mashing (130 wRC+ and .360 wOBA) across their last 10 games, while the Tigers have been flailing (86 wRC+ and .293 wOBA). I think it’s fair to say the visiting side has a sizable lineup advantage.
The Halos have been on a tear against right-handed pitching, posting a stellar 126 wRC+ and .352 wOBA across their last 10 games. That’s good news considering the Tigers send Manning to the bump.
The tall right-hander has finally started to show through on his first-round draft capital this season with a 3.19 ERA. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that pristine number is here to stay — his 4.34 xERA, 4.65 FIP, and 5.49 xFIP all point straight toward Regressionville, USA.
He doesn’t make batters miss at all, ranking in the second percentile in whiff % and the seventh percentile in chase rate while notching just 6.14 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s not a burner (averages 93.3 mph on his fastball) and throws too straight (20th percentile fastball spin rate, 19th percentile curve spin rate). It’s not surprising that he allows so much hard contact (26th percentile average exit velocity).
I believe Manning is at a slight disadvantage in this matchup against Sandoval, who sports a 4.28 xERA and 3.99 FIP. His underlying numbers are encouraging — he makes batters miss (73rd percentile whiff %) and limits hard contact (84th percentile average exit velocity), and this is a favorable matchup.
Detroit hasn’t been very adept at hitting lefties this season, ranking 23rd in wRC+ (93) and 21st in wOBA (.303). Those numbers don’t look much different if we isolate for recent performance — the Tigers have an 89 wRC+ and .296 wOBA against lefties in July. I see little reason to forecast a productive day at the dish against an effective southpaw.
I give the Angels more of an advantage than they’re getting in the betting market and will take them on the moneyline.
My best bet: Angels moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)
Angels vs Tigers same-game parlay
Angels moneyline (-120)
Mickey Moniak 2+ total bases (+160)
Angels Over 4.5 runs (-110)
The first leg of our SGP will be the Angels moneyline as outlined in the best bet section above. I’ll add two correlated plays to this centerpiece to rope together a three-legger.
For the second leg, I’ll take Angels outfielder Mickey Moniak to record two-plus total bases. The 25-year-old has really started to deliver on his promising talent and is in scorching form at the plate, riding a 14-game hitting streak entering Thursday. He’s been used almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, and for good reason — he crushes them to the tune of a 1.093 OPS. I love this prop and considered making it my bet, and I’ll be on this one personally as a single prop. The odds are too good to pass up at +160.
The final leg will feature the Angels scoring more than 4.5 runs. They’ve been mashing right-handed pitching and face a youngster due for regression. If they’re going to cash the moneyline, then it’s likely they score a handful of runs at the plate.
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Angels vs Tigers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Angels are slight favorites, fluctuating from -110 to -120 across various sportsbooks while the best number on Detroit is +105. Shop around using our MLB odds tool to grab the best price available at the time you place your wager.
Personally, I’m on the Angels as outlined in my best bet section above. I’d play that number to -135 and anticipate it moving in that direction.
The total opened at 8 but has quickly been bet upward; both 8.5 and 9 are showing depending on where you look.
Both teams have played to the Over this season, as the Halos are 49-46 O/U while the Tigers are 52-45 O/U.
The Halos have been surging to the Over, going 9-3 O/U in their last 12 games and 4-1 O/U in their last five. This matchup has tended to be high-scoring, going 4-1 O/U in the last five meetings.
Weather doesn’t look like it will play a huge factor, but there are winds of 6.3 mph blowing out to right field.
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Trend to know
The Angels are 10-4 in their last 14 games against Detroit. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Tigers.
Angels vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, July 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSW, BSDET |
Starting pitchers
Patrick Sandoval (5-7, 4.16 ERA): The left-hander has put forth back-to-back one-run games, surrendering just four hits across 12 1/3 innings. His 4.28 xERA and 3.99 FIP do not vary much from his actual ERA of 4.16. The 26-year-old has actually been better on the road (3.55 ERA) than at home (4.75 ERA) this season. Overall, his profile is decently encouraging.
Matt Manning (3-1, 3.19 ERA): Manning is running hot, surrendering just a single earned run across his last 14 1/3 innings. He’s surrendered just five hits and five walks in that span while striking out 10 batters. The 6-foot-6 right-hander’s season-long 17.1 strikeout percentage, 4.34 xERA, and 4.65 FIP are not very impressive, though, so it’s likely his ERA rises back up before too long.
