Astros vs Angels Predictions, Picks, Odds: One High-Scoring Game Deserves Another

The Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros will lock horns on Sunday night to finish up a three-game series. 

It was a thrilling contest last night and possibly the game of the year, ending in a 13-12 final, but that hardly tells the whole story.

The seventh saw the Angels erase a 9-3 deficit as the teams combined 11 total runs in that inning alone. The win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Halos as they continue to sort their next moves after Mike Trout's injury. For Houston, it was the team's fourth loss in its last six as the Astros dropped three games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Angels on Sunday, July 16th.

Astros vs Angels odds

Astros vs Angels predictions

One aspect of this matchup is close to a complete unknown, at least in this writer's view. 

That unknown is what we're going to get from Cristian Javier. We can theorize a few angles and explore why he's suddenly struggled (seemingly out of nowhere), but the truth is, it's hard to pinpoint. There was no apparent expected regression, yet Javier has failed to pitch through four innings in any of his last three starts. Because of this unknown, I'm going to completely separate it from my best bet and take what has the strongest data behind it. That's an Over of the Astros Team Total. 

Lefty Tyler Anderson will take the mound for the Angels this evening, and put bluntly... he's been bad. He's inefficient, owning a walk rate that's near the bottom of the league. He gives up too many hits, allowing four or more in every start he's made this season. There's a likelihood that too many hits will get worse with an expected batting average that hovers around .300. Having the issue of giving up too much contact is not what you want when facing the Astros and that's why I like them to pile on the runs today.

Houston has the third-highest BABIP in baseball over the last 14 days. Though they haven't been good in this metric in the season overall, it was only a matter of time before that was remedied. There are too many talented hitters in this lineup and we've seen them finally turn the corner.

I don't think it stops here. Beyond being more efficient with putting balls in play, the Astros feast against left-handed pitching. They have the eighth-best batting average in the league against them (a number that has increased recently), along with a Top 10 ISO rating. Anderson is catching Houston in the wrong place at the wrong time. 

Take the Over on the Astros Team Total tonight. This offense has started to hum lately, and I see no reason it doesn't continue with a favorable matchup. I projected this number at 5.5 but priced closer to +100. This is a number that the Astros have eclipsed in the first two games of this series, and they are well-positioned to do it a third straight.

My best bet: Astros Team Total over 5.5 (+110 at DraftKings)

Astros vs Angels same-game parlay

Astros Team Total Over 5.5 (+100)

Tyler Anderson Under 17.5 outs recorded (-120)

Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+105)

+ODDS at bet365

This is a pretty straightforward same-game parlay, given my above handicap. 

While it may not be the most sexy, it gets the job done, and I still see value in it. The first two legs are highly correlated. This matchup and its timeframe is all bad for Anderson; thus, we expect two things to happen. The Astros will score runs and Anderson will get chased fairly quickly as a result. Anderson has gone Over this outs total in about half his starts this season, and generally, we've seen a direct correlation between his Under outs and the better-hitting teams on the schedule he's faced. 

We finish things with the Over on Kyle Tucker's total bases. For my money, he's the best overall hitter on the Astros roster, but that's not the only reason we like him tonight. Anderson throws some fastball about 60% of the time. Tucker is the best fastball hitter in tonight's lineup, with a .339 average against them this season. He also has favorable splits against lefties with an ISO in the Top 75 of the league among qualified hitters despite being on the wrong traditional side of the matchup.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis

If Javier were pitching to his typical standards, I'd firmly be in the Astros' corner, but his recent play has made me lay off. Besides, there's more value in the team total than any moneyline play. My projections priced this game at -125, and that's about the price oddsmakers have given us. Houston has a great pitching matchup; it's just a matter of Javier can break out of his recent slump.

The trends point in one direction. Houston has won seven of the last ten head-to-head matchups. Coming into last night, it had won six of the previous seven games. 

Although I preferred to isolate Houston's team total, I lean Over for the entire game. I worry about a hangover from last night's slugfest, but the spot is tough to ignore. Put away the pitching matchup, and you're left with good chances for runs based on the conditions alone. It will be a hot evening in Angels stadium, with temperatures in the upper 80s and winds blowing out. This should increase ball flight and carry while increasing the chances of a few balls leaving the park.

Trend to know

Houston has averaged 5.2 runs per game on the road the season, including 6.6 in its last three. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Angels

Astros vs Angels game info

Starting pitchers

Cristian Javier (7-1, 4.34 ERA): It's tough to get a handle on Javier. There are some things you can find an excuse for, but his poor run of play recently has been troubling nonetheless. His last one was quickly the worst when he was hammered by the Texas Rangers to eight earned runs in just over four innings. I'm keen to buy low on Javier, but we need to see some improvements soon, or things could spiral out of control. 

Tyler Anderson (4-2, 5.25 ERA): It's not been a good season for Anderson. A WHIP of 1.52 against a career WHIP of 1.27 tells enough of that story. Anderson has done a reasonably good job of avoiding hard contact but has struggled elsewhere. He finds too many bats and is likely to continue doing so with an expected batting average in the bottom 20% of baseball. He's compounded that issue with too many walks, a category that he's near the bottom 20% of baseball in. He'll come into today off a short appearance against the Los Angeles Dodgers when he allowed 3 runs in 4.1 innings. 

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