A recent hot streak has the Houston Astros in the thick of the playoff chase as they open a four-game set against the Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon.
My Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions expect the home team to struggle again in this Canada Day matchup.
Houston is a -155 road favorite and our MLB picks are buying in.
Astros vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Astros moneyline (-155 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Houston Astros are playing their best ball of the season, having ripped off nine wins in their last 10 games, pushing them over .500 for the first time all season.
This run has them just 3.5 back of the Seattle Mariners in the AL West chase, and 3.5 back of the Minnesota Twins, who currently hold down the second Wild Card.
Offense has been the Astros' driving force, as they lead the majors in hitting with a .265 team batting average while ranking inside the Top 5 in both slugging percentage and OPS. Houston has pumped out at least five runs in its last eight wins. Its pitching has held up its end of the bargain too, allowing just 3.8 runs per game during this fun run.
The Astros send red-hot Hunter Brown to the mound in the series opener. He is 5-5 with a 4.37 ERA and has won four straight starts, with a lone earned run allowed over 25 innings of work.
The Toronto Blue Jays enter Monday with just three wins over the last 12 games. Two of those came in a split against the Yankees, though Toronto did suffer blowout losses of 16-5 and 8-1 in that set. Toronto has given up six or more runs eight times in its last dozen games.
While the starters are in the middle of the pack with a 4.02 ERA, the bullpen has been getting knocked around, and their 4.74 ERA is the third-worst in baseball.
This is not a lineup that can outslug those problems, either. The Blue Jays have scored the seventh fewest runs in the bigs and are putting up just 3.99 per contest.
Yariel Rodriguez gets his sixth start of the year, still looking for his first win. He took the L in his last performance against the Cleveland Guardians, lasting just 1 1/3 innings and surrendering four earned runs in a 7-1 thumping.
Houston has taken two of three from the Jays already this season, outscoring them 19-2 over the series. With Brown serving and the offense humming, Houston should keep chugging along.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+175 at PROLINE+)
As good as Brown has been of late, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been better. Still, the right-hander's recent success is likely why Vlad's RBI prop is paying at +175 (consider Yordan Alvarez is +138 for the same prop, and that's also a play worth targeting).
Vlad is now slashing .297/.376/.471 with 13 homers and 50 RBI, and it's almost all because of his June. He hit .318 with eight homers and 25 — HALF his season total — RBI in the month. While he came up empty in the RBI department in Sunday's series finale vs. the Yankees, he went 7-for-15 with three dingers and 10 RBI in the first three games of that set. In fact, 19 of those 25 June RBI came between the 23rd and 29th, a span of seven games.
Guerrero doesn't have a disadvantage related to handedness and has performed better vs. same-handed hurlers this season (.308 average).
Brown's resurgence is notable, but so are his struggles, particularly with the long ball. While he's only surrendered one homer in his last four starts, he allowed 10 across his first 12 outings, giving up two on three occasions. And it's not a new problem, either. His 1.5 HR/9 in 2023 was the 10th-highest among MLB pitchers who threw at least 150 innings.
The 25-year-old has ace potential and he could very well stymie the Jays' overall anemic offense today, but Vlad is the one bat in the lineup who I trust to do damage almost ever time he steps into the box.
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Astros vs Blue Jays odds
Astros vs Blue Jays live odds
Astros vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+110) | Toronto +1.5 (-130)
- Moneyline: Houston -150 | Toronto +125
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Astros vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston is 5-1 in its last six as a moneyline favorites.
- Toronto is 20-21 at home this season.
- The Under has cashed in five of the last six head-to-head matchups.
- Seven straight Blue Jays games have hit the Over.
Astros vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays are 3-5 in their last eight as underdogs. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays
Astros vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 7-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, Sportsnet |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Hunter Brown (5-5, 4.37 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yariel Rodriguez (0-2, 5.94 ERA) |
Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Astros vs Blue Jays weather
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