The first installment of this three-game NL series gets underway tonight with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field. MLB odds have Chicago as a slight -130 favorite, while the total sits at 9.5.
My Phillies vs. Cubs prediction is optimistic on the underdog, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, July 2.
Phillies vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Phillies moneyline (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Michael Mercado, who will make his first MLB start tonight. He has only thrown one inning in relief at this level, setting down all three batters he faced.
Regardless, that sample size is meaningless, which is likely why Philadelphia is priced as the underdog. However, I am on the optimistic side of this uncertainty.
As a starter at Triple-A this season, Mercado posted a commanding 1.71 ERA across 47 1/3 innings of work. Even if he is kept on a short leash, I trust the Phillies bullpen to take care of the rest.
Philadelphia’s relief staff ranks higher than the Chicago Cubs’ in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
Meanwhile, Chicago hands the ball to right-hander, and prime regression candidate, Hayden Wesneski. Despite posting a 3.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 21 appearances, Wesneski owns a 4.81 xERA and ranks in the 36th percentile or lower in xBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
We’ve already seen the beginnings of this expected regression as Wesneski is 0-1 over his past four outings with a fade-worthy 7.88 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. The Cubs lost all four of those games.
Finally, the clear hitting advantage goes to the Phillies. They pace Chicago in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Phillies vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies moneyline
Over 9.5
Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 hits
Although I expect a strong outing from Mercado, he will still likely surrender a couple of runs. That should be all we need to cash the Over because Philadelphia should jump all over Wesneski and Chicago’s bullpen.
The Cubs’ relief pitching ranks 20th or lower in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. If we are backing both a high-scoring game as well as a Phillies victory, then a highly-correlated outcome would be for Nick Castellanos to record a hit in the process.
Castellanos is 2-4 in his career against Wesneski and has recorded at least one hit in 11 of his past 13 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Phillies vs Cubs live odds
Phillies vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-165) | Chicago -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +110 | Chicago -130
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Phillies vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Chicago opened as a -130 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- This line should move in Philadelphia’s direction due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 9.5 and also remains at that price at the time of writing.
- This is a big number, but Wesneski is due for regression and is followed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, a pitching staff that is tasked with going against one of the best lineups in the league.
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Phillies vs Cubs trend
Philadelphia has won six of its past nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs
Phillies vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Michael Mercado (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Hayden Wesneski (2-4, 3.60 ERA) |
Phillies vs Cubs latest injuries
Phillies vs Cubs weather
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