Reds vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Today's MLB Game

The Cincinnati Reds will aim for a Fourth of July sweep in the Bronx when they meet the New York Yankees to finish a three-game set.

The Yankees' struggles continue. No matter what happens today, they will lose their third straight series. Today is about somehow breaking through and avoiding just a second sweep of the year and the first in a series of three or more games. Win or lose, my Reds vs. Yankees predictions are targeting a lesser-known Cincinnati hitter.

Read on for my free MLB Picks on Thursday, July 4th.

Reds vs Yankees prediction

My best bet
Will Benson Over 0.5 H+R+RBI (-130 at BetMGM)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

After yesterday's day off, Will Benson is back in the Cincinnati Reds lineup and facing a right-handed pitcher. We see nearly a 20-cent edge on this prop and will happily make it our best bet today.

Marcus Stroman will take the mound today for the New York Yankees. He's been a solid pitcher, but he's also been hittable. Stroman will enter today with an expected batting average below the league average and an expected ERA that's a bit worse. That's where our handicap begins.

RBI can be tricky to quantify because of how many variables are in play. However, even at the bottom of the lineup, Benson will be well-positioned to grab one. Three of the closest four batters just ahead of him have done well against sinkers, Stroman's primary pitch, hitting .290 or better against it this season.

If it's not an RBI, Benson also has a reasonably good matchup to get a hit. Alone, I priced it at essentially a coin flip. Benson has been a good breaking ball hitter for much of the season. He's also slugged .488 against the sinker, the fourth-best amongst the Reds. He has put up the second-highest hard-hit rate among Reds players against sliders and has been generally unlucky from a production standpoint.

The ball typically isn't going to fly out of the park when Stroman is on the mound, but he gives up plenty of hits. Benson is cheaply priced here, and I'm willing to bite on a player who has exceeded this number in three of his last five games. 

Reds vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)

Will Benson Over 0.5 hits

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases

+200 at DraftKings

Since DraftKings doesn't allow you to use hits+runs+RBI props in a same-game parlay, we've improvised and reduced it to just a hit.

We're pairing it with the alternate line for Aaron Judge to go Over 1.5 total bases. Most books have bumped his total base number from 1.5 to 2.5 today for good reason. He has a great matchup in a bounce-back spot after going hitless yesterday. Reds hurler Frankie Montas will come in today with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 30% of baseball. I don't need to say anything more.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Reds vs Yankees odds

Reds vs Yankees live odds

Reds vs Yankees opening odds

• Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-135) | New York -1.5 (+115)
• Moneyline: Cincinnati +145 | New York -170
• Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)

Reds vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Yankees hold a slight advantage in this series lately, going 6-4 over the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
• New York lost eight of its last 10 games and cost bettors over five units in losses.
• Cincinnati has been profitable for bettors over its last 10 games, with a +2.2 units won for bettors and a 5-5 record
• The Yankees have been a big Over team amid this slump, going 8-2 over the last 10. 

Reds vs Yankees trend

The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+11.95 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Yankees

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