The Fourth of July may not be an official holiday in Canada but don’t worry, the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros are still providing fireworks at the Rogers Centre this afternoon.
These American League teams will close out their four-game series today, and with Chris Bassitt toeing the rubber against Framber Valdez (plus a putrid Blue Jays bullpen), my Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions expect the total to go down quicker than a Nathan’s hot dog.
I break it all down in my MLB picks for this matinee affair.
Astros vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-106 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
It’s starting to feel formulaic for the Toronto Blue Jays. Get some solid starting pitching, play a tight game through five innings or so, and then watch the bullpen get lit up like a Christmas tree.
That’s exactly what happened in yesterday’s 9-2 loss to the Houston Astros, a game tied at two through six innings before Toronto's relievers threw up all over themselves. It's no surprise they rank next to last in ERA over the L30.
It’s been like this for a while now, and with some of the Blue Jays’ bats starting to turn things around, they've been regularly cashing Overs lately. In fact, the Over is 9-1 in Toronto’s last 10 games, and with the pitching matchup we’re getting today, I like that trend to continue.
Toronto hands the ball to Chris Bassitt this afternoon in hopes of evening up the series. Bassitt has been pitching well for the Blue Jays lately, but his advanced numbers paint the picture of an average MLB starter.
The veteran righty is pitching to a 4.12 xERA, surrendering a .256 xBA, and striking out 21.8% of batters faced. Those numbers rank in the 41st, 32nd, and 47th percentiles, respectively.
He also won’t be happy to see Yordan Alvarez & Co. Current Astros batters have a .306 xBA and a .532 xSLG vs. Bassitt, and Alvarez has done a lot of the damage — going 8-for-18 with five homers against Bassitt. (Backing Yordan to go Over his RBI prop also looks like a solid play today).
The Astros counter Bassitt with Framber Valdez, and kind of like Bassitt, Valdez has been just OK but not great this season. The lefty owns a 4.03 xERA, while opponents are getting to him for a .259 xBA.
Valdez has also seen the velocity dip quite a bit on his sinker and is getting hit really hard as a result. He ranks in the Bottom 2% in both average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still raking while guys like George Springer and Justin Turner are putting up better ABs, they should have some success against the Houston hurler.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+145 at PROLINE+)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just got announced as the starting first baseman for the American League at the upcoming MLB All-Star game, and it’s a much-deserved honor.
Vladdy has looked like one of the best hitters in baseball for the better part of two months, batting .340 with a .955 OPS since May 5, but it’s the return of his power that has really gotten Jays fans excited again. (Please, for the love of god, extend him).
Guerrero has gone yard six times in his last 11 games. He’s also hitting .412 with a 1.372 OPS with 12 total extra-base hits and a whopping 20 runs batted in, driving in at least one run in seven times over that stretch.
I like this matchup for Vladdy with Valdez in his current form. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact, and not many hit the ball harder than Vladdy. At this price, I’m more than happy to back him to get another RBI this afternoon.
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Astros vs Blue Jays odds
Astros vs Blue Jays live odds
Astros vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+130) | Toronto +1.5 (-155)
- Moneyline: Houston -120 | Toronto +100
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as +100 home underdogs but have seen a little action with the line moving Toronto to the -105 range.
- There would be some value in the Blue Jays here if not for their atrocious bullpen, as Bassitt has been the better of the two starters recently. Houston has won four of the six meetings between these teams this season.
- The total hit the board at 8.5, and that's where it sits as of Thursday morning.
- The Blue Jays were an Under team for much of the first half, but their bats coming around mixed with the aforementioned terrible bullpen has flipped that on its head.
Astros vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the game total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home for +9.55 Units and a 41% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays
Astros vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Network, Sportsnet |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (6-5, 4.11 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (7-6, 3.24 ERA) |
Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Astros vs Blue Jays weather
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