The New York Mets look to take three of four from the Washington Nationals when they wrap up their series on July 4.
New York has been surging the last three weeks, pushing them into the thick of the National League Wild Card race, and my Mets vs. Nationals predictions like this trend to continue.
They’re slight road favorites on the moneyline Thursday morning against a Washington team they’ve dominated. Read on for my MLB picks on Independence Day.
Mets vs Nationals prediction
My best bet
Mets moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Since falling to a season-worst 11 games under .500 on June 2, the New York Mets have turned things around in a big way.
New York has gone 18-7 in its last 25 games, pulling to 42-42 on the year, and sits just 1.5 games back of St. Louis and San Diego for the second Wild Card spot.
The Mets have been getting it done with the bats, hitting .275 over the last 30 days, which ranks tied for third in all of baseball, and they lead the majors in runs scored and OPS over that stretch. They've scored at least six runs in 14 of their last 18 wins, helping a pitching staff that has also picked up the pace, ranking just outside the Top 10 in ERA in the last month.
Their NL East combatant this morning has been trending in the exact opposite direction. Since pulling to within a game of .500 on June 16, the Washington Nationals have just five wins over their last 15. They did pick up the win Wednesday, overcoming a five-run deficit to outslug the Mets 7-5, but it was only their second win in the last nine.
They do have their hottest pitcher going today though, as Jake Irvin seeks his fifth win in seven starts. He has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his last seven starts. However, he was rocked in his lone start against the Mets last season, allowing six earned runs on six hits in an 8-2 loss.
New York has dominated this head-to-head of late, with Washington’s last win snapping what was a Mets five-game win streak over the Nats.
With their bats cooking, look for New York’s momentum to carry them to a series win on getaway day.
Mets vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 hits
Nick Senzel Over 0.5 hits
Francisco Lindor picked up a hit in Wednesday's loss, continuing a run that’s had him hit safely in 13 of his last 16 games. Lindor has picked up multi-hit games seven times over that stretch, and he had success in his lone appearance against Irvin, going 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI.
We haven’t talked much about Mets’ starter Jose Quintana, who has allowed just six earned runs over his last four starts, all wins.
But Nationals third baseman Nick Senzel has his number, hitting .389 in 18 at-bats, which includes a home run and a pair of RBI. Senzel has just one hit in this series, but that number should increase with this matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Nationals odds
Mets vs Nationals live odds
Mets vs Nationals opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+135) | Washington +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: New York -115 | Washington -105
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Mets vs Nationals spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York is 4-1 as a betting favorite in its last five vs Washington.
- Washington has been a moneyline underdog in seven straight, going 2-5.
- The Over is 4-0-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings
- The Mets’ Over record is 7-0-1 in their last eight games
Mets vs Nationals trend
New York has eight straight games vs Washington at Nationals Park following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals
Mets vs Nationals game info
| Location: | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 11:05 a.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, MASN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (3-5, 4.57 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | Jake Irvin (6-6, 3.03 ERA) |
Mets vs Nationals latest injuries
Mets vs Nationals weather
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