Well, if you thought the Blue Jays lineup was bad with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in it, then you better look away when he’s out.
The Jays dropped their Canada Day matchup to the Houston Astros and it was quickly evident they missed the newly anointed American League Player of the Week in the 3-1 loss.
With Vladdy set to return to the lineup can he save this series or will the Toronto bats stay silent? I break down the MLB odds in my MLB picks and Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions for Tuesday, July 2.
Astros vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-118 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The answer is unfortunately, it probably doesn’t matter if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returns. The star first baseman has been tearing the cover off the ball for the better part of two months and the Toronto Blue Jays still can’t build any momentum. They are now eight games below .500 and eight games back of a wild-card spot.
Guerrero sat out Monday’s game after getting hit by a Gerrit Cole fastball over the weekend and while it’s not believed to be serious, Toronto really can’t afford to have him out of the lineup. That absence was compounded when the resurgent Isiah Kiner-Filefa was scratched with a knee injury.
Those are arguably the Blue Jays' two most productive hitters, so it wasn’t surprising to see them score just one run on four hits Monday afternoon.
That doesn’t give me a ton of confidence they will be able to generate much offense, even against Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled to this point.
Additionally, the 24-year-old rookie has been better than his 5.68 ERA with an expected ERA of 4.14, a respectable 25.3% strikeout rate, and is coming off the best start of his career, shutting out the Colorado Rockies on three hits while striking out 10 over seven innings.
The Blue Jays saving grace on Tuesday is that they hand the ball to Jose Berrios. The veteran right-hander has been one of the bright spots for the Jays this season. He owns a 3.38 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP this season. Berrios also broke out of his mini-slump by dominating the Yankees over seven innings last time out, giving up just two runs on two hits with eight Ks.
Berrios also had a great result against the Astros back on April 2, when he held them to one run on six hits in a game that ended in a 2-1 Blue Jays win.
I’ve preached all season long that the Jays have been an Under machine when Berrios takes the ball thanks to his ability to battle and his teammates' propensity for whiffing at the dish. Now, the trend has cooled off a bit lately, with the Over going 2-0-1 in Berrios’ last three starts, but the Under is still 11-5-1 when he’s on the bump this season.
And even with Guerrero back in the lineup, this looks like a great spot to target the Under once again.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
George Springer Over 0.5 RBIs (+145 at PROLINE+)
With Vladdy hobbled someone needs to step up nd I’m looking at good old boy George Springer. The veteran outfielder has looked like a corpse at the plate for most of this season, but the 34-year-old apparently still has some life in him.
Springer is hitting .550 with a 1.709 OPS which includes two doubles and three Springer dingers. The hot streak means Spinger has been put back in a prime run-producing spot in the order, usually fifth and he’s delivered with 10 RBIs during that period. At this price let’s back him to drive in at least one more tonight.
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Astros vs Blue Jays odds
Astros vs Blue Jays live odds
Astros vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 -200 | Toronto -1.5 +165
- Moneyline: Houston -105 | Toronto -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as slight home favorites but the line has already moved to -110 each way.
- The Blue Jays enter this matchup losers of 10 of their last 13 games, while the Astros are trending up with wins in 10 of their last 11. Houston has also won three of the four meetings with Toronto this season outscoring them 22-3.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of early Tuesday afternoon.
- As noted the Jays have been a solid Under bet when Berrios starts, it is also 3-1 in the four matchups against the Astros this season.
Astros vs Blue Jays trend
The Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games for +15.65 Units and a 21% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays
Astros vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, Sportsnet |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (4-6, 5.68 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (7-6, 3.38 ERA) |
Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Astros vs Blue Jays weather
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