The San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves do battle at Truist Park in the rubber match of a three-game series.
San Francisco ace Logan Webb's pinpoint command headlines my Giants vs. Braves predictions as he tries to safely navigate this dangerous Atlanta lineup.
In addition to Webb, I'll break down a solid SGP and more in my MLB picks for Independence Day.
Giants vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Logan Webb Under 1.5 walks (-120 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb is one of baseball's premier control arms, with his 5.7% walk rate ranking 16th among all qualified starters in 2024. Webb peppers the zone, relying on soft contact to record outs while pitching deep into games.
Webb has completed six or more innings in 10 consecutive outings and despite the vaunted workload, he has issued one freebie or fewer in six of those outings. Three of those occasions came against lineups that rank within the Top 10 in walk rate — the Dodgers (twice) and the Reds.
While the Atlanta Braves boast a fearsome lineup, they haven't drawn walks at an elite number in 2024 as their 7.8% walk rate ranks 20th in MLB.
Webb's outs recorded prop is 18.5 with the Over available at +130. I was tempted by this number due to the plus money and Webb's propensity to pitch deep. He'll throw around 100 pitches tonight, but the Braves can knock him around the park — whether by BABIP luck or hitting the gaps. This could end his day prematurely or convince Giants skipper Bob Melvin to turn to the pen after the sixth.
This result would also play into the Under on the walks-allowed prop. Fewer innings means fewer chances to issue a free pass.
Giants vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Webb Under 1.5 walks
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
Under 7.5
Webb fills the zone and Matt Olson does damage. The lefty slugger has performed better at home on the season, hitting .275 at Truist Park with six homers and 12 doubles. And while he has hit righties worse than lefties this year, that doesn't jive with his career numbers.
Charlie Morton keeps chugging along, posting a 3.89 ERA as a 40-year-old starter. I like him to go blow-for-blow with Webb to keep this a modestly low-scoring affair.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Braves odds
Giants vs Braves live odds
Giants vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco -1.5 (+145) | Atlanta +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: San Francisco -105 | Atlanta -115
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Giants vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- After opening just to one side of a pick 'em, the Giants are now as long as +117 while the Braves are as short as -137.
- The Braves are 6-4 straight up in their last 10 games against the Giants.
- The total has gone 3-6-1 to the Over in those contests.
- Under bettors can still get a flat 8.0 at some books, with -105 the best price at Caesars.
Giants vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the game total Under in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+16.15 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Braves
Giants vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-4-2024 |
| First pitch:7 | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Bay Area, Bally South |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (6-6, 3.13 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (5-4, 3.89 ERA) |
Giants vs Braves latest injuries
Giants vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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