Astros vs Mariners Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Tonight’s nightcap sees a heated division rivalry take shape when the Houston Astros visit the Seattle Mariners for the first of three in the Pacific Northwest.

Just one game separates these two atop the American League West standings, and my Astros vs. Mariners prediction thinks the bats may have to shake off some rust after the All-Star layoff.

Let’s get into my free MLB picks for Friday, July 19.

Astros vs Mariners prediction

My best bet
Under 7 (+100 at DraftKings)

My analysis
It’s not as if Hunter Brown was pitching his absolute best heading into the All-Star break, but the young Houston Astros righty is certainly in a much better place than he was three months ago.

Brown was victimized by fly balls and a plethora of walks in the early going, pushing his ERA to 11.84 in the month of April. Since then, he’s begun to drive up his whiff and strikeout rates and has pitched to contact brilliantly with a complement of ground balls, bringing his expected batting average to .223.

My focus here, though, is the trends we saw Brown develop as he stumbled to the break. The strikeouts persisted, but he began pitching to more contact in the air in his final two outings — something that should actually work in his favor on Friday at T-Mobile Park, where fly balls go to die.

Brown should be more than capable of keeping the strikeouts flowing against the guiltiest strikeout team in the country, and if he remains a friendly launch-angle arm, then the Mariners should find little success in the rare instances they put the ball in play.

Now, the Astros aren’t exactly a fly-ball team like the Seattle Mariners, but they sit inside the Top 5 in fly-ball rate for July. That should be music to Luis Castillo’s ears, considering the righty has once again been averse to ground balls, pitching to the strengths of his home park.

Houston’s sporting just a 95 wRC+ this month and has really struggled against fastballs, which should come into play here, considering the four-seamer is what’s hurt Castillo most. He’s lost a full 1 mph on the delivery and that’s led to slightly worse returns on the year.

I expect both starters to keep the ball off of the ground here, and for Brown, at the very least, to find some strikeouts. That should keep this one a low-scoring affair and lead us to yet another Under in Seattle, something that’s happened in 70% of games played at T-Mobile Park this year.

Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 7

Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Jake Meyers Over 0.5 Hits

+495 at DraftKings

It’s important to note here that I’m crafting this parlay at DraftKings. While the odds on each leg are nearly identical over at FanDuel, combining the three offers you just +383 odds at FD which is a far way off this number we’ve found elsewhere.

I do believe in Brown’s ability to rack up some punchies here on Friday night. He’s yet to hit seven strikeouts this month, sure, but he did so in six of his seven starts prior to the calendar turning to July. He also struck out five Mariners earlier in the year in a short 4 1/3-inning start, which didn’t last very long given he had yet to turn his year around and was snake-bitten by walks.

Brown’s strikeout rate had also been jumping with every month up until he hit a roadblock this month, but the sample is too small to be overly concerned about and was weighted by some good Twins and Rangers offenses.

I do think Jake Meyers is in a great spot to damage for Houston’s order, too, given he’s hit .297 against fly ball pitchers, compared to .267 against ground-ballers, and owns a .311 xBA against fastballs — a pitch with which Castillo has been more vulnerable this year.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Mariners odds

Astros vs Mariners live odds

Astros vs Mariners opening odds

• Run line: Houston +1.5 (-205) | Seattle -1.5 (+170)
• Moneyline: Houston +125 | Seattle -150
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)

Astros vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis

• The money has been steadily trickling in on the Astros here. They began the day around +120 on the moneyline and now find themselves at -105.
  
  
• There was a brief moment where the total moved to 7.5 runs from the opening line of seven, and despite the projection laid out above, the line is trending slightly to the Over.
  
  
• While just 44% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings are on the Astros, they make up 68% of the handle.
  
  
• A whopping 76% of tickets are on the Over, but it’s accounted for just 66% of the handle.

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Astros vs Mariners trend

The Mariners have hit the Under in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.60 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners

Astros vs Mariners game info

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