Aaron Rodgers returns to the field on Monday night as the New York Jets head to Levi's Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers. Early money has poured in on the visitors and the Under, but my early Jets vs. 49ers predictions are going against the line movement.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 1 showdown.
Jets vs 49ers predictions
Early spread lean
49ers -4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This spread opened with the San Francisco 49ers installed as 6-point favorites and slimmed as low as -3.5 before ticking back up to -4.5.
Super Bowl runners-up have gone 4-19 ATS in their following Week 1 openers since 2000. That said, most Super Bowl losers have plenty of roster turnover and tend to be due for regression after outperforming expectations, while the Niners return all their key starters and have been a perennial contender for years.
Quarterback Brock Purdy could be even better in his third year in the league, and getting leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams to sign extensions has ensured he's surrounded by elite talent.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets have a holdout of their own in top edge rusher Haason Reddick, and there's no end in sight to his contract squabbles. Reddick was expected to fill the void left by the departure of Bryce Huff in the offseason and without him on the field, Purdy will have time to find his targets.
New York's offense is expected to be better with Aaron Rodgers, who missed virtually all of last year after tearing his Achilles tendon. That said, it's tough to trust a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a serious injury, especially with plenty of questions on the Jets' offensive line.
The Jets tried to upgrade their line in the offseason by signing Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses while drafting Olu Fashanu. However, until I see them live up to that potential, I can't back them against a stingy San Fran stop unit, especially with Nathaniel Hackett still working as the Jets offensive playcaller after an abysmal campaign last season.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
These were the two best defenses in the league in 2022 but both units took a step back last year. I expect these defenses to fail to live up to expectations again this season, but their attacks should be potent.
The 49ers ranked 26th in the league in defensive rush EPA last year. With the departure of defensive lineman Arik Armstead in the offseason and linebacker Dre Greenlaw sidelined by an injury, they could have a tough time keeping Breece Hall in check.
That said, I also expect San Francisco to find holes in New York's solid stop unit. The Jets held opponents to just 18.6 ppg in 2022 but they were 12th in the NFL in scoring defense last year (20.9 ppg) with that number ticking up to 22.4 ppg on the road.
The Jets have some excellent defenders in Quinnen Williams, C.J. Mosley, Quincy Williams, and Sauce Gardner. However, they also some weak links in their lineup and the 49ers have the weapons and the playcalling to exploit those vulnerabilities.
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Jets vs 49ers live odds
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