The AFC South is expected to be a wide-open division this season and it all starts in Week 1 with a huge divisional matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium.
This rivalry will see several new players from last year on both sides and my Texans vs. Colts predictions have circled one key Colts player.
Find out why I'm backing Adonai Mitchell in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 8.
Texans vs Colts prediction
My best bet
Adonai Mitchell Over 2.5 receptions (-145 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Last season was a tale of two different stories with these two teams and their rookie quarterbacks. The Houston Texans saw CJ Stroud emerge as a Pro Bowler and Offensive Rookie of the Year, as he led them to a 10-7 season and a win in the Wildcard round over the Cleveland Browns. The Indianapolis Colts saw Anthony Richardson show some positive signs but went down with a season-ending injury in Week 5 and the team finished 9-8.
Indy will be hoping to see a full season of what they hope to be their next franchise quarterback, and they gave him an extra weapon in Adonai Mitchell, who they drafted in the second round. Mitchell won two national championships in college at Georgia before transferring to Texas in his final season and helped lead them to the College Football Playoff, so he is used to being an important piece of an offense at the highest level.
In the preseason, Mitchell played seven series with Anthony Richardson at quarterback and saw four targets and two catches for 18 yards and a touchdown. While those are not necessarily gaudy numbers, it is worth noting he was playing behind both Alec Pierce and Josh Downs as more of the fourth wide receiver. Downs is out of this game with an ankle injury.
Now Mitchell is the one-for-one replacement to Downs in terms of where he will lineup on the field and AD is going to be a favorite target early from AR. Last year in the season opener for the Colts, Richardson targeted Downs seven times and completed three passes for 30 yards. In the game against the Texans in Week 2, Richardson went down early with an injury, but Downs still had four catches for 47 yards on five targets.
Now replace Downs with a possibly even more talented Mitchell. Last season, the Texans ranked 23rd in the NFL in passing defense and allowed 22.5 pass completions per game. It is extremely likely that we see the rookie catch at least three in his debut with no Downs available.
Texans vs Colts same-game parlay
Texans -2.5
Adonai Mitchel Over 29.5 receiving yards
Joe Mixon 60+ rushing yards
We talked about the new key player for the Colts, but the Texans offense added two huge players in Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs. Last year the Texans ranked 22nd in rushing and if Mixon can provide the same play he did for the Bengals last year, Houston is going to be a serious contender. I will add the Texans to cover the spread to our parlay.
Last season, Mixon averaged 60.8 rushing yards per game, and he averages 61.5 yards per game on the ground in his career against the Colts. The Texans will utilize Mixon plenty early to make sure they control the time of possession battle and keep Richardson from beating them with his legs and quick passes to Mitchell.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texans vs Colts odds
Texans vs Colts live odds
Texans vs Colts opening odds
- Spread: Houston -1.5 | Indianapolis +1.5
- Moneyline: Houston -120 | Indianapolis +100
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texans vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at 1.5 at BetMGM but has moved up to 2.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The road team has covered seven of the last nine matchups between these two teams.
- The total opened at 47.5 at BetMGM but has risen to 49 as of late Friday afternoon.
- The Under has hit in seven of the last nine matchups between these two teams.
Texans vs Colts betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Colts.
Texans vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-8-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Texans vs Colts latest injuries
Texans vs Colts weather
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