Despite ultimately coming up short in last year's NFC Championship Game, the Detroit Lions are poised for another huge season in 2024 and it all starts tonight on Sunday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams.
Detroit's David Montgomery is out to show that he isn't going to be an afterthought behind Jahmyr Gibbs in the pecking order and our Rams vs. Lions predictions have him pegged for a big game.
I dig deeper into Montgomery's role in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 8 below.
Rams vs Lions SNF prediction
My best bet
David Montgomery Over 12.5 rushing attempts (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Rams have always been a team that doesn't have a lot of depth thanks to selling their future. However, this year could be even worse as they enter with 10 rookies on defense (of the 53-man roster) with five of those being undrafted. They could be playing from behind a lot Sunday vs. possibly the best offense in football, one that's also in its element indoors.
The Rams are still unsure what the rotation will be on the defensive line, and undrafted rookie linebacker Jared Verse will draw the start. This is also a defense that will be without its 2023 DC in Raheem Morris, who left for the head coaching job in Atlanta.
L.A. lost starting corner Darious Williams to the IR this week and is very thin at CB now with two other players on the shelf. The other starting CB, Tre'Davious White, is also coming off a season-ending injury last season. There are talks the Rams will need to sign a player just to add some bodies.
Put it all together and the Detroit Lions could be leaning on the run game late while protecting an early lead. Picture the Rams' defense sucking wind as the Lions put together 10+ play drives.
Rams place cornerback Darious Williams (hamstring) on injured reserve. With Cobie Durant limited with his own hamstring injury, Rams could have to rely on undrafted rookies Josh Wallace and Charles Woods opposite Tre'Davious White against the Lions on Sunday.
— Adam Grosbard (@AdamGrosbard) September 5, 2024
Everyone loves Jahmyr Gibbs and his ceiling is easily the highest of the RBs, but I'm targeting the veteran in David Montgomery tonight.
Gibbs has been dealing with a hamstring injury and although Gibbs has no injury designation, there could be more carries for Montgomery who averaged over 15 carries per game last year indoors across nine matches. His 4.96 yards per carry with a roof over his head was a full yard more than he gained when running outdoors.
The Rams have five new starters on defense and a new coordinator. They are also without Donald, who was arguably the best player at that position in the history of the game. I could see this Detroit offense doing whatever it wants Sunday night and Montgomery is the likely leader, especially late. Jared Goff can pick apart this weak corner group early, but it will be Montgomery racking up the carries late.
Don't trust me? Ask HC Dan Campbell:
#Lions HC Dan Campbell on David Montgomery:
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 6, 2024
“He’s a workhorse. He’s gonna be there when you need him the most. He’s a guy that can finish games out for you. He can start the game out and give you the tempo you need and the demeanor, set the tone, and then he can finish it out… pic.twitter.com/8IZYvrljhL
Monty projects for 13.6 carries and there could be more if Gibbs is handled cautiously early in the season. The veteran back hit the Over on his 12.5 carries total in eight of the 11 games where Gibbs suited up from Week 1 to 17. If this Rams defense is gassed down the stretch, Montgomery could pick up six to seven carries just in a close-out role alone.
Rams vs Lions SNF same-game parlay
David Montgomery 15+ rushing attempts
David Montgomery anytime TD
Puka Nacua 75+ receiving yards
I love this 3-leg parlay. It correlates beautifully with the Lions being in control and the Rams playing catchup.
The Lions' offense will outmatch a Rams defense that has changes at coordinator, lost four starters, is gutted at corner, and has little experience and depth. Montgomery averaged Over 15 carries per game with Gibbs in the lineup indoors last year and Campbell will pound the rock late vs. a defense that could be on the field a ton in the second half.
That's going to put the Rams' offense in catch-up mode, which means passing. I think Puka Nacua has been underrated in terms of his receiving totals (69.5 yards), which is wild considering what he did in his rookie year. I'm not buying the Cooper Kupp comeback show as Nacua averaged 8.42 targets per game with Kupp in the lineup over 14 games last year, and he turned that into 83 yards per game.
If Detroit gets up early, this could be a sweatless boosted cash. Detroit and Montgomery score early, they lean on the run, and L.A. plays catch-up with lots of garbage yards. Sounds easy.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rams vs Lions odds
Rams vs Lions live odds
Rams vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +4 (-110) | Detroit -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +145 | Detroit -170
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rams vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened at 3.5 and didn't hit -4 or -4.5 until late this week on the news of Rams' cornerback injuries. The total opened at 52.5, got as low as 51, and then went back to 52.5 on the same injury news.
- The Lions are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games and 15-6 O/U.
- Jared Goff went 9-2 SU indoors last year and posted a TD-INT ratio of 24-6 compared to 5-4 (five games) outdoors. The offense scored more than 21 points just once outdoors last year while averaging 30.6 points per game indoors.
- Detroit's average closing total at home in 2023 was 50.7.
Rams vs Lions betting trend to know
The Lions have only covered the 1Q spread in one of their last six games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Rams vs. Lions.
Rams vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-8-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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