Much like me in the morning, the Michigan State Spartans take a little while to get going.
The Spartans bring their five-game winning streak to Carver-Hawkeye Arena, surging to the top of the Big Ten despite sluggish efforts in the opening 20 minutes of those games.
The Green and White are trying to grab the regular-season title tonight while the Iowa Hawkeyes need to stop the bleeding as they're on track to miss the Big Ten tournament.
My Michigan State vs. Iowa predictions call for a feisty first half from the home team with my best college basketball picks.
Michigan State vs Iowa prediction
My best bet
Iowa first half +4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
During this winning run, the opening 20 minutes have been tricky for Tom Izzo’s team. The Michigan State Spartans have held the lead at halftime only once in that span while trailing by an average margin of -2 at the break, compared to a full-game edge of +9.6 in those five wins.
These slower starts don’t concern Izzo, who gave credit to his opponents for playing good defense in the opening frame rather than putting any blame on his team for flat efforts out of the gate.
“You know what, if we start down 30 to nothing, we're behind tomorrow and we win the game, I'm going to be happy,” Izzo told reporters ahead of this trip to Iowa. “But I don't think our starts have been as bad, there's just other good teams."
The Spartans are built for second-half surges, considering the depth of this roster (ranked 12th in bench minutes) and how they push the pace on offense, with one of the best transition attacks in the conference.
Michigan State has treated this recent run like a boxer: carefully feeling out its opponent in the first half before pouring it on in the championship rounds. The Iowa Hawkeyes, however, will come out swinging on Senior Night with the threat of missing the Big Ten tournament looming large after back-to-back road losses.
The Hawkeyes are one of the more two-faced teams in the country regarding home/away splits. Iowa is a dismal 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS as a visitor with an average margin of -10.1 on the road.
Put the Hawkeyes on their home court though, and that margin spikes to +12.4 with a first-half edge of +8.2 in those homestands. That has much to do with the team’s scoring success as a host, putting up 42.6 points per first half inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena (seventh-highest first-half scoring).
On the sideline, Izzo and Iowa coach Fran McCaffery know each other better than any two coaches could, having gone head-to-head in the Big Ten for a long time. These rivals have played in very close contests in the past couple of years and that familiarity will keep it tight in the opening 20 minutes, before MSU’s depth and pace break the Hawkeyes in the second half.
These lethargic starts for Sparty aren’t just reserved to this season either. Michigan State is a solid 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games overall (68%), but has posted a 13-22 1H ATS record in those same games (31%).
Full-game models call for a close contest in Iowa City, with projections ranging from Michigan State +5 to as high as +9, with one forecast actually leaning toward the host team. My number is MSU +4.5 over 40 minutes, which boils down to +1.9 lead at the break for the Spartans.
Michigan State vs Iowa same-game parlay (SGP)
Iowa first half +5.5
Over 151.5
Payton Sandfort 15+ points
Michigan State is slow out of the blocks and Iowa needs to play with passion early on, with the Hawkeyes back home after two tough road losses.
Game models call for between 149 and 154 points with most models on the other side of this total. The Hawkeyes score at home but they’re horrible on defense.
Payton Sandfort shows up on Senior Night. He had quiet games on the road the past two outings, but averages more than 18 per home game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan State vs Iowa odds
Michigan State vs Iowa live odds
Michigan State vs Iowa opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State -7 | Iowa +7
- Moneyline: Michigan State -305 | Iowa +245
- Over/Under: Over 151.1 | Under 151.1
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Michigan State vs Iowa betting trend to know
Michigan State has only covered the first-half spread in 13 of its last 35 games (-12.25 units/-30% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Iowa.
How to watch Michigan State vs Iowa
| Location | Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA |
| Date | Thursday, 3-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Michigan State vs Iowa key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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