It looked like the New Orleans Pelicans were tanking their own tank, winning five of seven games. However, they got the tank back on its tracks with a big loss to the Lakers last time out, and the Houston Rockets will be much obliged to help them out tonight.
That said, the Rockets have had trouble with their liftoffs and have lost three in a row. Despite this, they are 5-point road favorites. My Rockets vs. Pelicans predictions look at whether Houston can land back in the win column or New Orleans continue to be pesky.
Here are my NBA picks for this Western Conference showdown, which is set to tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 6, at Smoothie King Center, in New Orleans.
Rockets vs Pelicans prediction
My best bet
Jalen Green Over 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Just a couple of weeks ago, the New Orleans Pelicans were 12-42 and enjoying their time in the NBA basement while looking at some pretty good NBA Draft odds to land the No. 1 overall pick.
But the team started to get a little healthy and rattled off five wins in a seven-game stretch before a 136-115 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers the last time out brought them back down to Earth.
The question is what version of the Pelicans will we see tonight? It sounds like Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum are both good to go, which is certainly a positive. Either way, they’ll be in tough against the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets are 37-25 largely because they rank fourth in defensive rating, but they've lost three in a row thanks mostly to an inconsistent offense that has put up 103 points or fewer five times in the last 10 games.
However, I’m betting Houston’s offense won’t be a problem tonight. Despite their struggles, the Rockets still rank 15th in the NBA in offensive rating while the development of Jalen Green and Amen Thompson has been fun to watch.
Green has been grounded the last two games. He went 6-for-14 from the floor for 18 points in Monday’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder and followed that up with a 4-for-13 performance at the Indiana Pacers the very next night.
Before that, Green was playing really well, averaging 22.9 points per night. He was particularly hot from deep in the five games before the last two, draining 44.2% of his 10.4 attempted threes per game, and I like him to take off tonight.
For starters, the matchup against the Pels is a great one, even if they are playing better. New Orleans still ranks next-to-last in both defensive rating and opponent effective field goal percentage. The Pelicans also surrender the second-most 3-point attempts per game while ranking 23rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Green has also cooked the Pels this season. He put up 34 and 30 points in two December meetings, going a combined 10-for-21 from beyond the arc in those games.
Rockets vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Jalen Green Over 23.5 points
Kelly Olynyk Over 9.5 points
Zion Williamson Under 24.5 points
Veteran big man Kelly Olynyk is making the most of his opportunities with the Pelicans. Olynyk has started six games for the Pelicans since coming over from the Toronto Raptors and is averaging 11.6 points in those starts. His point total is a modest 9.5 and has put up 11 points or more in four of his last five games overall.
While I think there is some value in the Over with Olynyk, I’m going the opposite way with Williamson. The Pels star is averaging 24.8 points per game this season and is coming off a big game against the Lakers, but has still played below this number three times in the last five games, and the Rockets' strong defense should put up plenty of resistance tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockets vs Pelicans score prediction
Score prediction: Rockets 118, Pelicans 115
The Pelicans will put up a bit of a fight at home and cover the number but will come up just short, losing to the Rockets for the third time this season.
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Rockets vs Pelicans odds
Rockets vs Pelicans live odds
Rockets vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Houston - 5 (-110) | New Orleans +5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston -200 | New Orleans +165
- Over/Under: Over 230 (-110) | Under 230 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pelicans opened as 5-point home underdogs and the spread has bounced back and forth between that and 4.5 for most of the day.
- The Rockets won and covered two December meetings with the Pelicans, however, Zion Williamson did not play in either game.
- The total hit the board at 230 and has yet to see much action as of Thursday afternoon.
- You might think the Rockets would be a good Under team with a strong defense and inconsistent offense, but they are 31-30-1 O/U this season. The Pelicans are 35-26-1 to the Over this season. Both December meetings between these two went Over and I lean that way again.
Rockets vs Pelicans trend
The Rockets have only hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 83 games for -16.60 Units and a -18% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Pelicans.
How to watch Rockets vs Pelicans
| Location | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Thursday, 3-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, GCSEN, WVUE |
Rockets vs Pelicans latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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