Look up “treadmill of mediocrity” in a modern basketball dictionary and there should appear a photo of the Atlanta Hawks. This will likely be the third straight season they end up in the Play-In tournament, and each of the previous two yielded one-sided first-round losses.
The Indiana Pacers have better shown how to progress a franchise, and that distinction has been most notable against Atlanta.
My Pacers vs. Hawks predictions and NBA picks expect this head-to-head trend to continue on Thursday, March 6.
Pacers vs Hawks prediction
My best bet
Pacers team total Over 125.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Indiana Pacers have successfully done what the Atlanta Hawks have so long dreamed of. Indiana immediately veered into an up-tempo offense when it acquired Tyrese Haliburton from Sacramento, and a season later, the Pacers found success with that approach.
Last year, Indiana operated at the second-fastest tempo in the NBA with the No. 2 offensive rating. This season, those numbers have both slipped to No. 8, hardly something to panic over.
This was what Atlanta believed in, too. Despite the success the Hawks enjoyed in 2020-21, finishing with the No. 5 seed while playing at a plodding pace (No. 22 in the NBA, with the No. 9 offensive rating), Atlanta insisted upon speeding things up.
In each of the last two seasons, the Hawks played at the No. 6 pace in the NBA. This year, that has risen to No. 2. Yet their offensive rating fell to No. 7 two years ago, No. 12 last year, and now sits at No. 21.
How frustrating must it be for Trae Young to look at Haliburton and see his idealized reality? The Pacers have created this offense so much better than the Hawks ever could.
And it shows up most when these two face each other. If granting the premise that this version of Indiana first became a threatening reality last season, then it warrants noting that the Pacers have gone 5-0 outright against the Hawks since the start of last season and 4-1 against the spread.
The Pacers have cashed the Over on their team total in all five of those games, doing so by an average of 17.8 points compared to bookmakers’ expectations. As it pertains to this exact matchup, Indiana has simply created a better version of Atlanta, thus keeping the Pacers off the treadmill of mediocrity.
Pacers vs Hawks same-game parlay
Pacers team total Over 125.5
Pacers -3.5
Tyrese Haliburton Over 10.5 assists
The Pacers going 4-1 ATS against the Hawks since the start of last season should be an obvious reason to include Indiana -3.5 in this same-game parlay. To further that logic, remember that the Pacers have gone 5-2 ATS since the All-Star Break, while the Hawks have gone 2-5 ATS in that exact same stretch.
Backing Haliburton here is simply recognizing the matchup. In his last four games against Atlanta, the Indiana superstar has averaged 14 assists per game. Since joining the Pacers, he has cracked this prop against the Hawks in five of eight games, with one of the exceptions coming in the first such matchup and by only the hook.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pacers vs Hawks score prediction
Score prediction: Pacers 135, Hawks 125
Do not be shocked if this final score ends up looking comical. Indiana has averaged 144.4 points in its last five games against Atlanta.
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Pacers vs Hawks odds
Pacers vs Hawks live odds
Pacers vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Indiana -2 | Atlanta +2
- Moneyline: Indiana -150 | Atlanta +125
- Over/Under: Over 247 | Under 247
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Indiana opened as merely a 2-point favorite on Wednesday evening, reaching -2.5 by the end of the night but not jumping to -3 until early Thursday morning.
- The Thursday lunch hour pushed this spread to -3.5.
- This total opened at 247 and feinted to 246.5 multiple times before revealing its true intention of climbing to 248 midday Thursday.
Pacers vs Hawks trend
Four straight Atlanta games have gone Over their totals despite each of the last three having totals of 244 or higher. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Hawks.
How to watch Pacers vs Hawks
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Thursday, 3-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN |
Pacers vs Hawks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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