The Edmonton Oilers are reeling along an NHL-worst 1-6 stretch, and they'll look to bounce back against the Montreal Canadiens at Rogers Place tonight.
There’s been a lot of smoke and mirrors during Montreal’s five-game winning streak, and my Canadiens vs. Oilers predictions expect Edmonton to flip the script with a statement win.
Read more in my NHL picks for Thursday, March 6.
Oilers vs Canadiens prediction
My Oilers pick
Oilers -1.5 (-105 at BET99)
My Oilers analysis
If there’s a must-win game in March, this is it for the Edmonton Oilers. There’s no sugarcoating the league-worst 1-6 run they’re on.
The Oilers sit dead-last in goals percentage and team shooting percentage at five-on-five during this stretch, and they’re even sporting an uncharacteristically low 44.8 expected goals percentage that ranks 26th.
And, if it wasn’t for a red-hot power-play, Edmonton would be even worse off because 10 of the Oilers' 19 goals during the seven-game lull have come with the man advantage.
Goaltending and team defense have also been major shortcomings. The Oilers have surrendered the second-most goals (24), third-most expected goals (17.64), and their .868 team SV% is also the second lowest at 5-on-5 during the skid.
However, while the Montreal Canadiens are cruising along a 5-0 stretch, there’s a reason the Habs are still a huge underdog on Thursday.
Montreal has been caved in at 5-on-5 with a 42.3 Corsi For percentage, and the Habs rank 28th with a 44.0 xGF% during the run. A 33.3 PP% and 91.7 penalty-kill percentage during the run has helped bail the Canadiens out of their poor underlying play at 5-on-5.
While the Habs are rolling on the surface, this is a winnable home game for the Oilers. It’s a game that I’m anticipating Edmonton winning handily.
Oilers vs Canadiens same-game parlay (SGP)
Oilers -1.5
Canadiens team total Under 2.5
Stuart Skinner Over 22.5 saves
As highlighted, the Canadiens have cashed in offensively despite poor underlying 5-on-5 metrics, and I expect the Oilers to show up in a big way on home ice. Edmonton allowed just 2.39 goals per game during a sterling 24-7-2 stretch before this active hiccup, and there’s no reason the Oil can’t flip the switch defensively and replicate that level of high-end defensive play.
Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner has to do his part, and he’s struggled to the tune of an .863 SV% and 4.55 GAA across his past five appearances. Still, Skinner posted respective .924 and 2.21 marks across 14 home starts during the noted Edmonton heater, and this is an opportunity to hit the reset button.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oilers vs Canadiens odds
Oilers vs Canadiens live odds
Oilers vs Canadiens opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton -1.5 (-115) | Montreal +1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Edmonton -275 | Montreal +225
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-102) | Under 6.5 (-118)
Odds courtesy of BET99
Oilers vs Canadiens trend
Edmonton has hit the game total Under in 54 of its last 109 games (+1.80 Units / 2% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Canadiens.
How to watch Oilers vs Canadiens
| Location | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date | Thursday, 3-6-2025 |
| Puck drop | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet West, RDS |
Oilers vs Canadiens latest injuries
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