The Calgary Flames visit the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center to wrap up a six-game road trip Thursday, March 6.
Dallas is a defensive juggernaut on home ice, and my top Flames vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks expect goals to be few and far between tonight in the Lone Star State.
Flames vs Stars prediction
My Flames pick
Under 6 (-110 at BET99)
My Flames analysis
This is a daunting schedule spot for the Calgary Flames. They’re playing the final stop of a six-game road trip, and the Dallas Stars are a dominant 23-7-1 on home ice.
The Stars are also stingy at American Airlines Center and allow the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.32) while pacing the NHL with an 87.7 penalty-kill percentage. Dallas starter Jake Oettinger has also been better on home ice with a .918 SV% and 2.18 GAA compared to respective .901 and 2.82 marks on the highway.
Add Calgary ranking second last in goals per game and last in goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 on the road, and I’m anticipating Oettinger and Big D doing the heavy lifting for this Under.
Of course, Flames backup Dan Vladar has also been tidy across his past three road starts with a .940 SV% and 2.00 GAA, so the Stars could have their fair share of troubles finding the back of the net.
Finally, it’s also worth noting Calgary has gone Under the number in 44 of its last 82 games (+9.10 units / 10% ROI), and Dallas has played to the Under in 54 of its previous 98 games (+12.60 units / 12% ROI).
Flames vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6
Jake Oettinger Over 24.5 saves
Nazem Kadri Over 2.5 shots
The Stars are missing No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen (knee) in a big way. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most shots per game (31.9) and sports the eighth-lowest Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 (46.2%) with him out of the lineup.
With Heiskanen, Dallas allowed the fifth-fewest shots per game (26.6) and posted an eighth-ranked 51.7 CF% at 5-on-5. As a result, I’m anticipating Oettinger seeing enough rubber to clear this modest total of savings. He’s recorded 26+ saves in six of seven starts since Heiskanen was injured.
Turning to the final leg of this SGP, Flames center Nazem Kadri has recorded 3+ shots in 10 of his past 11 games and 39 of 61 for the season to rank in the 98th percentile in shots on goal among forwards. He also paces the club in both shots (10.63) and attempts (20.23) per 60 minutes and often trades with a 3.5-shot total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Flames vs Stars odds
Flames vs Stars live odds
Flames vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Calgary +1.5 (-125) | Dallas -1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Calgary +200 | Dallas -245
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Odds courtesy of BET99.
Flames vs Stars trend
The Flames have cashed the Under in 44 of their last 82 games (+9.10 units / 10% ROI), and the Stars have done so in 54 of their last 98 games (+12.60 units / 12% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Stars.
How to watch Flames vs Stars
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Thursday, 3-6-2025 |
| Puck drop | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet 1 |
Flames vs Stars latest injuries
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