The Florida Gators and Houston Cougars sharpen their scissors for tonight’s matchup in the NCAA Men's National Championship Game in hopes of cutting down the nets in San Antonio.
The Cougars’ top-ranked defense was able to choke out the No. 1 scoring attack in the country, taking down the star-studded Duke Blue Devils in Saturday’s semifinal. Houston’s offense, on the other hand, needed a big night from standout guard L.J. Cryer to advance.
My Florida vs. Houston predictions and March Madness picks believe Cryer will come through again — especially from beyond the arc — on Monday, April 7.
Who will win Florida vs Houston?
Game odds are drum-tight and game models are just as close, with projections on either side of a one-possession game. Florida’s victory over Auburn was impressive but UF faced a familiar foe with a star player at less than 100%. Defense wins championships, so I’ll crown the Cougars.
Florida vs Houston prediction
My best bet: L.J. Cryer Over 2.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer was the best player on the floor Saturday night — which is saying something given Duke’s roster of blue-chippers.
Cryer isn’t shy about letting it fly from downtown, attempting eight or more triples in four of Houston’s five NCAA Tournament games. He’s shooting better than 45% from deep and averaging 3.8 makes from long range.
Houston’s offense is often undersized and interior scoring was very difficult versus Duke’s monstrous frontcourt on Saturday. The Cougars were just 13-for-39 from inside the arc (33%) and managed only 20 points in the paint.
The Florida Gators will throw plenty of size at UH in the title game. The Gators aren’t as long as the Blue Devils but have quality bigs — and lots of them — to plug up the paint and push Houston to the perimeter.
That’s just fine with Cryer and the Cougs.
Houston has lived off the 3-ball in the tournament, collecting more than 38% of its total points scored from outside. That reliance on the triples has gone up the past three games, with UH garnering almost 42% of points off 3-pointers.
Cryer has the hot hand and has hit three or more 3-pointers in three of the five NCAA contests so far. Going back to Big 12 play, he’s knocked down three or more from distance in 13 of his last 19 games.
Florida’s 3-point defense ranks high nationally but is far from smothering on the perimeter, boosted a bit by a poor-shooting SEC. The Gators’ starting guards are much shorter than Duke’s lanky backcourt (which ran 6-foot-5 and taller), so Cryer will enjoy cleaner looks from long range.
Player projections for Monday’s National Championship Game call for Cryer to stay hot from outside, with models ranging from 2.6 makes from distance to 3.4 3-pointers. Given those forecasts and a +110 price tag on Over 2.5 3-pointers, we’re getting great value on Cryer to keep it coming from beyond the arc.
Florida vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
L.J. Cryer Over 2.5 threes
Milos Uzan 3+ assists
Joseph Tugler 7+ rebounds
Cryer keeps letting it rip from 3-point range and makes three or more triples for the 14th times in the past 20 games.
Milos Uzan’s projections call for as many as five dimes. He had three or more assists in six straight before dishing out only two versus Duke.
Joseph Tugler will play such an important role on defense and cleaning the glass. Forecasts call for seven or more rebounds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida vs Houston odds
Florida vs Houston live odds
Florida vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: Florida -1 | Houston +1
- Moneyline: Florida -115 | Houston -105
- Over/Under: Over 142 | Under 142
Odds courtesy of bet365
Covers Florida vs Houston betting tools
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Florida vs Houston betting trend to know
Houston has won outright on the moneyline in 31 of its last 32 games (+26.95 Units/2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Houston.
How to watch Florida vs Houston
| Location | Alamodome, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Monday, 4-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Florida vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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