Astros vs Rangers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Lefties Don't Love Pitching Against Texas

Nathan Eovaldi returns to the rotation as the Texas Rangers face the Houston Astros tonight at Globe Life Field. 

The first meeting of this crucial three-game intrastate series saw Houston explode offensively for a 13-6 victory. That win propelled the Astros a single game ahead of the Rangers in both the AL West and AL Wild Card standings. 

Will Eovaldi’s return help stem the bleeding for a Rangers team that has dropped 13 of its last 17 games?

I’ve got my eyes on the other pitcher in this matchup, Framber Valdez, and one of his props. Check out which one I’ve selected with my best bet and read on for my full MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Rangers on Tuesday, September 5.  

Astros vs Rangers odds

Astros vs Rangers predictions

It’s been a bumpy stretch for Framber Valdez, who has allowed exactly six earned runs in three of his last seven starts. His ERA has steadily been on the rise, moving from 2.51 on July 8 to 3.38 today. One of those rough outings occurred on July 26 against the Texas Rangers, who tagged him for eight hits, two walks, and six earned runs across 3.2 IP. 

While the Rangers have hit a down period of late, that has more to do with what’s happening on the mound than what’s happening at the plate. Texas has posted a 103 wRC+ and .323 wOBA across its last 10 games. The good news in this particular matchup is that the Rangers have mashed left-handed pitching this season with the league’s third-best wRC+ (126) and wOBA (.351) against southpaws. 

The Rangers absolutely crush lefties and now face one who has been uncharacteristically ineffective over the last two months. Valdez’s earned runs prop is set at 2.5 with the Over favored, and it’s a prop I have my eye on for my best bet. 

The veteran lefty has surrendered 3.4 earned runs per game across his last 10 starts and I’ll need to see more before believing he’s back to peak form. Although he’s coming off two good starts in a row, neither the Red Sox nor Tigers can compare to this Rangers lineup when it comes to battering round left-handed pitching. 

Texas gets a boost now that catcher Jonah Heim was cleared to face left-handed pitching on Sunday. The switch-hitter was reinstated from the IL on August 13 but only to bat from the left side of the plate. The change is huge news in this matchup considering he’s posted a .794 OPS against southpaws since 2021. 

I see a struggling pitcher going against a team that has mashed lefties for much of the season getting another lefty masher in the lineup. I’ll take Valdez to surrender more than 2.5 runs as my best bet.

My best bet: Framber Valdez Over 2.5 earned runs (-150 at bet365)

Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay

Framber Valdez Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)

Robbie Grossman Over 0.5 total bases (-170)

Jonah Heim Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

+400 at bet365

I’ll add two Texas batters’ total bases props to form a correlated play alongside the Over on Valdez's earned runs. First, Robbie Grossman is a lefty masher who has a .880 OPS against southpaws since 2021 and should see a few at-bats in this contest considering Valdez is typically a pitcher who throws deep into games, even if he gets tagged around a bit. One hit of any kind from Grossman, and his leg cashes.

This third and final leg will be Heim to go Over 1.5 total bases. He hits lefties very well and has been fully cleared to bat from the right side of the plate, which is good news for a struggling Rangers team considering they found great success early in the season against left-handers with his All-Star bat in the lineup. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This one is lined pretty tight with Houston sitting between -115 and -120, depending on the book, while the best comeback on Texas is at +102. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure that you grab the best price available before placing your wager. 

Things simply aren’t going well for the Rangers, who have lost 13 of 17. Lately, they’ve been dropping games in excruciating fashion, blowing a lead of at least three runs in each of their last three games. 

Houston has been red-hot at the plate, posting a 150 wRC+ and .388 wOBA across its last 10 games. After plating 13 runs on Monday, it has now done so in three of its last eight. 

It’s unsure how much we’ll see out of Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi in this contest as he makes his first start in seven weeks after hitting the IL with elbow soreness. His return is undoubtedly a positive thing for a team struggling more than usual, but it’s the biggest unknown in this handicap and provides a level of uncertainty. 

The total is set at 9 at most books but 8.5 is also available at the time of this writing. 

I’d be more inclined to target Texas’ team total, which is set at either 3.5 or 4.5 depending on what book you look at and what price you’re willing to pay. 

Trend to know

The Rangers have hit their team total Over in 41 of their last 64 home games for an ROI of 22%. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs Rangers

Astros vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Framber Valdez (10-9, 3.38 ERA): Valdez sports 4.19 xERA heading into this contest against the Rangers. He’s been effective in his last two starts, allowing two earned runs and five hits across 13 IP while striking out 11. His primary concern this year has been allowing hard contact — he ranks in the third percentile in average exit velocity and the ninth percentile in hard-hit percentage. 

Nathan Eovaldi (11-3, 2.69 ERA): After missing the last seven weeks due to elbow soreness, Eovaldi makes his much-needed return to the fold for a struggling Rangers rotation. It’s unsure what his workload will be considering his last start was back on July 18. He’s been great this season when healthy, although his 3.51 xERA and 3.23 FIP are both a bit higher than his actual ERA. 

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