Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you're betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day's slate and how to apply that information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let's scam some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Monday, September 9.
Josh's best starting pitcher edges: September 9
Morton u17.5 outs (+115)
Sulser 3+ strikeouts (+170)
Buehler u4.5 strikeouts (-110)
Today’s best SP angles
Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves
The angle: Charlie Morton struggling down the stretch with the Braves in a heated playoff race.
At 78-65, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets are tied for the final playoff spot in the NL and Atlanta cannot falter with 19 games remaining. That means a tight leash on Charlie Morton, who has not looked great of late with a 5.31 ERA since July 26. He has failed to get 18 outs in four straight starts despite throwing 95+ pitches in three of those.
Morton is also coming off his only back-to-back 100-pitch starts, which shows how inefficient he's been. His walk rate is still running high and he's using a ton of pitches per plate appearance. He has also struggled vs. easy lineups like the Angels, Rockies, and Nationals in three of his last four games.
I'm expecting a 20-pitch inning or two from Morton at home with decent hitting conditions at Truist Park. He projects for 16.1 outs and Morton's Under 17.5 outs is a buy to -105 or better.
The move: Charlie Morton Under 17.5 outs (+115 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies
The angle: Opener Cole Sulser could go longer than projected.
The Tampa Bay Rays are going with Cole Sulser on the bump and there is a chance that he sees more work than in his last start (September 4) where he went six outs on 37 pitches.
That start came on three days' rest and the right-hander will be on a full four days off entering today. Sulser went eight outs on 48 pitches in his outing before that start and there is a good chance he goes three innings today, making his 3+ Ks at +170 very appetizing on the alt strikeouts market.
It's not the best matchup, but at +170, there are a few ways this can go. He can get it with six outs as he's better than a K/9 pitcher over his MLB career, or he can get one punchout per frame and go three innings. I'd expect a pitch count around 45-50, but he could go 60 in an optimistic look.
Books are pricing him on the low end of his pitch count. I'd buy the 3+ Ks at +125 or better but because of the range of outcomes, I'm likely out at +115.
The move: Cole Sulser 3+ strikeouts (+170 at bet365)
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
The angle: Walker Buehler has not gone more than 15 outs since his return and faces tough hitting conditions vs. the Cubs.
Since returning to the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation, Walker Buehler has pitched to a 5.29 ERA with a 14:10 K:BB rate across four starts and 17 innings. He has not thrown more than 90 pitches in any of those starts and another ineffective outing is very possible vs. the Chicago Cubs, who have been one of the better offenses in baseball over the last 30 days while also striking out at one of the lowest rates in the league.
Buehler is paying -110 to throw fewer than five punchouts today, which is a number he has failed to hit in nine of his 12 starts this year. Those three Overs came against the Angels, Rockies, and Reds.
The Dodgers are sitting comfortably in the NL West, up six games, so not pushing needed arms before the playoffs is likely. The LA starter is projecting for 4.0 Ks today and I'd need +200 odds to bet his Over 15.5 outs today. Five innings and four strikeouts is the most likely scenario here but he could also get hit around with 90-degree heat and an 11-mph wind blowing out, or continue with his command issues to push that pitch count up early.
The move: Walker Buehler Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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