The Los Angeles Dodgers picked up a dramatic win against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, scoring seven runs in the top of the ninth to turn a 2-2 contest into a blowout.
My Dodgers vs. Braves predictions see the Dodgers building on Sunday’s success and picking up another win.
Let’s take a closer look with my September 16 MLB picks.
Dodgers vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Dodgers moneyline (-112 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Max Fried is an excellent pitcher but he has a very evident Achilles heel: left-handed hitters. Fried has struggled immensely vs. them this season. In fact, his .870 OPS allowed to lefty batters is higher than any other starting pitcher projected to get the nod today.
That spells trouble against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have some extremely good left-handed batters on the roster, including elite, top-of-the-lineup talents like Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. They are going to cause problems for Fried.
The Dodgers as a whole also excel vs. southpaws. Despite all the injuries they’ve dealt with to key players, no team has bested the Dodgers in xwOBA or total home runs against LHP.
While Los Angeles should be able to do some damage against Fried, the same can't be said about the Atlanta Braves vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Yamamoto has allowed an average of 1.7 runs per game through 15 starts. In the process, he’s entirely blanked potent lineups like the Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, and New York Yankees.
He should be able to slow down a Braves team hitting just .225 against right-handed pitchers in September.
Given the Dodgers’ dominance against lefties and a pitching advantage with Yamamoto on the mound, I like their chances of taking another game in Atlanta
Shohei Ohtani pick: TEASER
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-145 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Ohtani’s been a H+R+RBI machine all season long. He’s averaged 2.7 per game while clearing his line an impressive 62% of the time.
Although the matchup against Fried is difficult, there’s still a lot to like with Ohtani in this spot.
Fried has done a great job of limiting right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .212 batting average. Same-handed hitters like Ohtani have fared much, much, better.
Left-handed hitters are batting .331 against Fried on the year. They’ve also mustered up just three fewer homers despite right-handed batters piling up 355 more plate appearances.
If Fried is going to run into trouble in this game, lefties like Ohtani are likely to be involved in the fun.
It’s also worth noting Ohtani is hitting at the top of the lineup in front of stars like Mookie Betts, Freeman, and lefty-masher Teoscar Hernandez.
Dodgers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers moneyline
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 4.5 strikeouts
The Dodgers winning and Ohtani making some noise at the plate is nicely correlated. I like throwing in Yamamoto for five strikeouts as a cherry on top.
Yamamoto has cleared this line in 13 of 15 games this season, including his recent return to the rotation where he was on a hard pitch count.
The Braves are expected to start six batters with a K rate of 20% or higher and five of at least 24%. There are a handful of gettable targets in the lineup and I expect a dynamic talent like Yamamoto to take advantage.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Braves odds
Dodgers vs Braves live odds
Dodgers vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -108 | Atlanta -102
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+160) | Atlanta +1.5 (-179)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-107) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Dodgers vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as -108 favorites at Pinnacle. That line has seen a slight adjustment, with the Dodgers now carrying a -112 price tag.
- The total has also remained fairly stagnant. The Over of 7.5 runs opened at -107 and now sits at -114.
- The Dodgers have hit the moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games (+4.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 67 games (+15.90 Units / 22% ROI).
Dodgers vs Braves trend
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has struck out at least six batters in all six road starts this season, averaging 6.8 in total. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Braves.
Dodgers vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, BSSE, MLBN |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-2, 2.89 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (9-9, 3.46 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Braves latest injuries
Dodgers vs Braves weather
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