With Opening Day now out of the way (and a perfect set of picks to kick things off), what does Day 2 have in store for Major League Baseball?
There are nine games on the schedule, and we’ve parsed through the matchups for our best No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning bets.
Today's MLB picks start with a pair of teams who will be seeing their first action in 2025.
Best NRFI/YRFI bets today
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YRFI (+101 at ProphetX)
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NRFI (-129 at ProphetX)
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YRFI (+116 at ProphetX)
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NRFI/YRFI bets for March 28
Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays: YRFI (+101 at ProphetX)
The Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays tied for 17th in first-inning scoring a year ago, delivering at just over a quarter of the time, with identical 25.93% clips.
But we’re picking a Yes for this afternoon, as the pitching matchup isn’t all-world. Colorado starter Kyle Freeland is coming off a forgettable 5-8 campaign. His 5.24 ERA was the highest it’s been in five seasons, while pitching in just 113 1/3 innings.
His last three starts of the 2024 campaign were alarming, as he allowed at least seven hits, three earned runs, and two home runs in each. There was a score in the first inning in two of those games.
For the Rays, Ryan Pepiot was so-so in 2024, going 8-8 and carrying a 3.60 ERA in his first full season as a starter in the bigs (he had 10 total starts over two seasons with the Dodgers).
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: NRFI (-129 at ProphetX)
Thank you to Adley Rutschman (and Jose Berrios for serving it up) for going yard in the first inning to cash our first YRFI of the year as part of the Baltimore Orioles' 12-2 thumping of the Toronto Blue Jays.
While that Baltimore offense is potent, Kevin Gausman is generally Toronto’s most consistent starter and one who can steer them through at least the first inning.
Even though Toronto has lost all four of his starts to the O’s over the previous two seasons, Gausman’s first inning has stayed clean.
Veteran O’s starter Charlie Morton isn’t exactly at his peak, ending last year with Atlanta by dropping his final four starts, with the opposition getting on the board in the first inning twice.
But this is more about Toronto’s offense getting off to a slow offensive start — a regular occurrence in 2024 — than it is about 41-year-old Morton dominating the first inning.
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres: YRFI (+116 at ProphetX)
These teams combined for three runs in the first inning in San Diego’s 7-4 season-opening win, making it six times in the last eight head-to-head games that at least one run has plated in the first inning.
San Diego Padres starter Dylan Cease is coming off a 14-11 season with a 3.47 ERA. Three of his final five starts of the 2024 campaign had runs scored in the first inning.
He’ll be squaring off with righty Reynaldo Lopez, who went 8-5 in 25 starts a year ago, posting a sparkling 1.99 ERA.
The Atlanta Braves won six of his final eight starts to the year, and a run crossed home plate in the first inning in just two of those games.
Still, there’s something about this matchup that produces runs early, and even if the pitching matchup doesn’t make this an ideal YRFI, I’m willing to ride the current trend.
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