Baseball and a weekend ahead — what a glorious combination.
We have searched for a solid Friday board for the best home run value in the market. As always, try to stay within the recommended pricing as much as possible. Value is only value if the odds match up. Now, let's get to work.
Here are my free MLB player props for Friday, March 28.
Best MLB home run props today
Mookie Betts (+430 at FanDuel)
George Springer (+750 at FanDuel)
Oneil Cruz (+425 at DraftKings)
HR picks for March 28
Mookie Betts (+430 at FanDuel)
Mookie Betts, heard of him? The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar has been known to go deep from time to time, and this is a good matchup for him tonight. The conditions are good, too.
Winds are blowing out at Dodger Stadium, which gives us a slight increase in home run probability. They are also blowing out to center field. While that isn't the best possible circumstance for Betts to homer, he hit a fair share of them in that direction last season — about 30% — so we'll take it.
Last night, Betts looked to be in good form. He made contact in three of his four plate appearances, with the exit velocity reaching triple digits twice. Now, he'll get a pitcher who had a slightly above-average barrel rate last season but, more importantly, will throw Betts a good pitch mix to hit.
Betts doesn't strike out and is coming off the lowest K% of his career. This is vital because Detroit Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty is both a chase and a strikeout-reliant pitcher.
He'll get neither, which means we see a fair amount of stuff in the zone, likely off-speed pitches, including the slider and changeup. When seeing those pitches, Betts finished last year in the Top 2 amongst Dodgers in hard-hit rate.
George Springer (+750 at FanDuel)
Charlie Morton will make his first start for the Baltimore Orioles today, and he's a pitcher I've targeted in the preseason — but for all the wrong reasons.
Morton swayed up and down last year, but at 41, his best pitching days are behind him. Thus, I came into the year with a plan to fade him. Here's a good way to do so.
Springer boosted some impressive numbers in just eight career bats against Morton. There's a homer, two RBI, and an OPS of 1.194. That initially perked my ears up, especially at this price point.
Then there's the barrel rate.
Morton's been on a steady decline in that department for the past two seasons, and last year, his barrel rate was in the bottom 19% of baseball.
Oneil Cruz (+425 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz is one of my favorite guys to bet on a day-to-day basis because he hits the ball so hard, and the price doesn't reflect that enough. Of course, he has the hardest-hit ball in exit velocity history for a reason.
Today, he'll face Connor Gillispie, who makes his first career start after a handful of relief appearances for the Miami Marlins last season. We don't know much about Gillispie, but what we do know is helpful.
The fastball makes up almost 65% of his arsenal, and it's the pitch he feels the most comfortable with. Thus, expect him to lean on it when facing one of the most dangerous hitters in the Pirates lineup. Unfortunately for Gillispie, that's what Cruz wants.
Last season, Cruz registered a Top-25 hard-hit rate against the fastball and was even better against the cutter. He'll see both pitches tonight, making this a great matchup if he can get two plate appearances.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (+290)
- Juan Soto, New York Mets (+375)
- Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks (+375)
- Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (+400)
- Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (+360)
Betting info courtesy of BetMGM
Not intended for use in MA.
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