The San Diego Padres sit 3.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers entering one of the season’s final weeks, but the Houston Astros won't give up anything easy.
Both lineups possess plenty of pop, and my Astros vs. Padres predictions explain why you need to bet the Over. Read all about it in my MLB picks for September 16.
Astros vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-102 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Spencer Arrighetti is a big mystery at the age of 24. He was named the top minor league pitcher in the Houston Astros’ organization a season ago despite middling results.
Well, he’s been tagged for 11 runs — five earned — in just 7 1/3 innings across two starts this month. While he settled back in to post a Quality Start against the A’s last time out, he allowed seven hits in 6 2/3 innings and has now allowed a home run in back-to-back outings.
The righty has become a formidable strikeout arm, and his .227 xBA is quite good, but walks have been the biggest detractor — along with home runs and a rising xSLG. That sets up for an interesting matchup tonight, considering the San Diego Padres rock at limiting strikeouts and have in just 17.5% of plate appearances over the last two weeks with a solid .265 average.
This team is dangerous at the plate and the lack of strikeouts will put Arrighetti in trouble.
Houston's profile is nearly the same, with a focus on contact hitting next to few strikeouts and walks. We’ve watched Yu Darvish attempt to pitch to contact in his twilight years, considering he’s lost the ability to strike batters out, and the results have been a mixed bag with a .237 xBA and .407 xSLG.
Darvish looked like an effective pitcher earlier this season, but he’s fallen considerably since returning from injury and has allowed five runs over 7 2/3 frames against the lowly Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners.
The pitching matchup will be a tough one for both teams. Even in a pitcher-friendly park, I like both offenses to rack up baserunners and make this one a high-scoring affair.
Astros vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Spencer Arrighetti Under 4.5 strikeouts
Jurickson Profar 1+ hit
Just one of the last seven starting pitchers to face the Padres have recorded more than four strikeouts, and in the month of September, we’ve seen it happen just twice in 12 games.
This team is masterful in plate discipline, so even with Arrighetti’s robust punchout rate, he won't get home here. It would, however, mark just the second time it’s happened since late May, but that's why oddsmakers have set such a tempting line for Over bettors.
I’ll stick with Jurickson Profar to keep on hitting. He’s batting .294 over his last nine games, and against power pitchers like Arrighetti, he’s hitting a ridiculous .354 this season in 99 at-bats.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Padres odds
Astros vs Padres live odds
Astros vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston +115 | San Diego -135
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-180) | San Diego -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Astros vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Astros opened up as +124 underdogs before being bet down all the way to around even money as of Monday afternoon.
- DraftKings is reporting that 62% of the bets and 61% of the money has come in on the Padres.
- The total remains at the opening line of eight runs, though it took a brief trip down to 7.5 on Monday morning.
- The Over has accounted for 70% of the tickets and 76% of the total handle at DraftKings.
Astros vs Padres trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the game total Over in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.55 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Padres.
Astros vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, SDPA |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (7-12, 4.72 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Yu Darvish (5-3, 3.52 ERA) |
Astros vs Padres latest injuries
Astros vs Padres weather
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