The MLB slate for Friday includes several pitchers whose previous starts came against the same opponents they are facing today. That has me betting on history to repeat itself with several MLB player props.
See why I'm expecting another strong performance from David Peterson and another dud from Justin Verlander with my best free MLB picks for September 20.
MLB props for September 20
- Verlander Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 at DraftKings)
- Peterson Under 2.5 earned runs (-140 at bet365)
- Turang Over 0.5 runs (+100 at BetMGM)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Justin Verlander Under 5.5 strikeouts
Justin Verlander is a future Hall-of-Famer but it's clear that he isn't 100 percent, and at 41 years old, the Houston Astros right-hander has become a shell of his former Cy Young self. Verlander missed the first few weeks of the season with inflammation in his throwing shoulder before missing another two months with neck discomfort. He came off the IL at the end of August but has struggled mightily, pitching to an 8.34 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings across five starts.
Today he takes on the Los Angeles Angels at home. Last weekend, he held the Halos to two runs over five innings but managed to strike out only two batters. He also faced the Angels back in June and surrendered four runs in five innings while striking out only three.
In his prime, Verlander had a strikeout percentage hovering around the 35% mark. However, that number has steadily declined in recent years and sits at just 18.7% this season — placing him in the bottom 20th percentile of all pitchers.
Since coming off the IL, Verlander has yet to pitch deeper than five innings into a game. Considering his K% has plummeted, Under 5.5 punchouts is an easy play.
Prop bet #2: David Peterson Under 2.5 earned runs
At some point, you just have to throw analytics out the window and go with the results. That seems to be the case for New York Mets southpaw David Peterson, who has a sizzling 2.85 ERA across 19 starts despite his expected ERA sitting significantly higher at 4.75.
The Philadelphia Phillies usually rake against lefties, posting an OPS of .791, but they couldn't get to Peterson last Sunday when he limited them to four hits and one run across 7 2/3 innings.
Philly has been in a bit of a slump lately, plating just 3.63 runs per game since the start of last week, and the offense averages 4.64 runs per game on the road compared to 5.01 at home. There will also be a stiff 10 mph breeze blowing towards the infield at Citi Field today, which should help keep balls in the park.
With Peterson allowing fewer than 2.5 earned runs in 16 of 19 starts this year, keep riding that prop in this matchup.
Prop bet #3: Brice Turang Over 0.5 runs
While Milwaukee Brewers infielder Brice Turang isn't the most dangerous hitter, Zac Gallen might fear him tonight. Turang was incredible against Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks last weekend, going 3-for-4 at the plate with a pair of walks and three runs scored.
Two of those hits and one of those walks came against Gallen, who has pitched to a 4.30 ERA in 14 starts since the beginning of July. During that span, Gallen has an OBA of .253, and due to his poor control, opponents have an on-base percentage of .340.
Turang has a modest batting average of .258 this season, but he's ramped that number up to .290 this month. He also has the platoon advantage against Gallen and will benefit from home-field advantage tonight.
With the Brewers' swiss-army knife batting leadoff, bet on him to plate a run against either Gallen or a subpar Arizona bullpen.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
